ELECTION NIGHT IN HUTORI - 4234
Good evening and I'm Patrick White with HBC. Joining me tonight in the HBC News Room is of course our political analysis team including Veronica Simmonds from the Leah Ross School of Political Science, Andrew Martin, our HBC Polling Expert and savant, and Richard Clark, former Chief of Staff to a number of Senators, Ministers and Premiers. Our experts will be joining me in watching the returns from the Presidential, Senate and Provincial races as they come in. Initial exit polls state that we had over 60 million ballots cast, putting voter turn out at over 80%, a magnificent margin as we've ever seen. Eyes now turn to Roccato as the returns have begun to roll in.
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Roccato
Patrick White: At dissolution Roccato was governed by a NPP Minority Government with a fairly potent Conservative Opposition bench with a 3 seat margin. In third was the HPP with 24 seats who held considerable sway themselves, the Hutori Progressives had 17 and the Federalists had 16. So it was actually a fairly even Province in terms of seat distribution though from what I'm aware the Premier didn't have an easy time of running it.
Richard Clark: That's right Patrick. We saw this time after time with the Conservatives and Federalists who voted together on effectively every issue. Together they had a very potent 46 seats and the HPP voted with the Conservatives and Federalists on a number of issues which honestly makes a lot of sense. The NPP won Roccato because of their leftist views on Big Government and Progressive social views, which are two of the most important issues that citizens of Roccato feel strongest about. The Conservatives were some of the biggest advocates for bringing more power from Bekenial to Kincardine and the HPP heavily agreed with them. When you get a combined Opposition of 54 votes from the offset, if you aren't dancing to the Opposition's tune you aren't getting much passed. That sort of instability may come back to haunt the NPP this time around, a government that doesn't accomplish much often isn't returned to Sutton House.
Andrew Martin: What makes Roccato so interesting here is that 4 years ago Kim Bokota won it in the first round winning 3.6 million votes and she only increased that total in the second round when a great many of the Platt and Green supporters showed up to cast their second round ballots. The Conservatives also relied on Roccato as a major bastion of their support; Richard Steuart came in a close second in the Province winning 3.3 million votes there and provided the lionshare of support that President Carmichael has got in the second round as almost all Conservatives voters showed up to give their support to him. With the Conservatives not fielding any candidate this year there is a good chance as long as Conservative support holds up Carmichael might be able to pull out an early first round victory.
Veronica Simmonds: Most interesting for me is that the Social Liberals had no presence in Roccato four years ago. I think Martin McCaskill got 50,000 votes Provincewide, didn't elect a single Senator from the Province and had no presence at Sutton House in Kincardine. They were new, they were raw, but they were also the only environmentalist Party to speak of which I think should translate into some votes this time around as Rocatto considers the Environment one of their top election issues, which makes sense considering Global Cooling and the particularly harsh winters that it has to go through.
P.W.: As the returns are coming in it looks like its going to be a disappointing finish for President Bokota as it looks like former President Jason Carmichael is going to win the 1st round in Roccato by fairly convincing numbers. There is a very tight race for control of Sutton House but it looks like the NPP Premier is ultimately going to lose as the Roccato Progressives have squeaked out a one seat victory over the NPP by a margin barely 7,000 votes.
Presidential Race
1st Round
1. Jason Carmichael - 4.1 Million Votes
2. Ali Khosravi - 2.3 Million Votes
3. Kim Bokota - 2.3 Million Votes
4. Warren Platt - 1.4 Million Votes
5. Martin McCaskill - 1.1 Million Votes
Roccato Seat Counts
RP - 25 seats (+8)
NPP - 24 seats (-9)
FP - 23 seats (+7)
CPR - 21 seats (-9)
RPP - 15 seats (-9)
SLP - 12 seats (+12)
RESULT: Roccato Progressives Minority Government
Post Analysis
RC: This one probably stings for the NPP. Kim Bokota took this with over 3 and a half million votes 4 years ago. This time she finished in 3rd behind the Progressives, a Party her own almost beat by double back 4230 and the NPP Premier is out of a job after two terms, again losing to the Progressive, by only a single seat and under 10,000 votes.
VS: I think a great deal of this has to do with the surprisingly good show by the SLP. Like I predicted they are the only environmentalist Party out there, McCaskill got over a million votes, all that could have been drawn from Bokota though I think he also drew in some HPP support. The Roccato Social Liberals also now have a decent caucus, taking 10% of the seats.
AM: This will definitely be the Province to watch for the next several years. Together the "leftist" parties have a combined 61 seats when we don't count the Rocatto Proletarian Party, so the Roccato Progressive Premier should have a fairly simple matter of passing budgets and confidence votes but its only going to take a single dissenter from the NPP or SLP to topple him, so I'm expecting to see some pretty big concessions to keep the Province running.
PW: Attention now turns to Kenai.
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[/b]Kenai[/b]
PW: Kenai at dissolution had a powerful Federalist minority government in place with 46 seats though that was a step down from the majority mandate they had held 4 year prior. The Kenai Proletarians were also a very potent Opposition holding 38 Seats in the Kenai Assembly in Saint Adrian. The National Progress Party held 20 seats, while the Conservative Party of Kenai held 16 seats of their own. The Social Liberal and Kenai Progressive neither had any elected MLAs or Senators from Kenai in the last sitting.
AM: The big help for Premier Martin is that Kenai, like Adelia, are heavy internationalist Provinces. They have major ports and do a lot of international trade between the east and west respectively. They tapped into that and their business creds to hold onto a very viable coalition. It also helps with the huge military presence in Port Prosperity and Wrightstown, the military voting bloc have been cornerstones of the Federalists and Conservative voting blocs for years. This was the Province that President Carmichael had won with 6.5 million votes in 26 and he still won the Province with 5 million votes 4 years ago. The closest competition was Warren Platt who pulled in a fairly impressive 4.1 million. President Bokota only obtained 2.1 million votes here in the 1st round and even with the injection of Platt's supporters still lost it to Carmichael by almost three quarters of a million votes.
RC: It's fairly interesting note in Kenai that Premier Windsor never really "lost" his majority. Yes his caucus only held 46 seats but where had those seats gone? To the Conservatives, literally all 16 of them. The Conservatives supported Windsor in every confidence and budget Bill he put through the Assembly for 4 years. He may have had a de-jure minority, but he definitely had a working majority which is quite surprising as, despite its international outlooks, Kenai is traditionally a fairly "progressive" province and traditionally left wing parties do better then right.
VS: I think it made the Federalists a bit lazy though a bit lethargic as they might have. They haven't dealt with real opposition in over 8 years. This time around the SLP and KP are significantly better organized and will likely give the left a boost. Majority governments tend to get lazy and complacent after too many years in office and I think we may see that here tonight if the left puts a good showing.
PW: On that note the results are coming from across the Province. In the Presidential race it looks like President Carmichael will again win Kenai with Warren Platt coming in a strong second place in the Province and Martin McCaskill coming up in third actually ahead of both President Bokota and Ali Khosravi. HBC is also predicting that Premier Windsor and the Federalists will be re-elected to their second minority mandate.
Presidential Race
1. Jason Carmichael - 4.3 Million Votes
2. Warren Platt - 3 Million Votes
3. Martin McCaskill - 1.8 Million Votes
4. Ali Khosravi - 1.5 Million Votes
5. Kom Bokota - 1.2 Million Votes
TOTAL NATIONWIDE
1. Jason Carmichael - 8.4 Million Votes
2. Warren Platt - 4.4 Million Votes
3. Ali Khosravi - 3.8 Million Votes
4. Kim Bokota - 3.5 Million Votes
5. Martin McCaskill - 2.9 Million Votes
Kenai Seat Counts
FP - 34 seats (-12)
KPP - 30 seats (-8)
SLP - 18 seats (+18)
KP - 15 seats (+15)
NPP - 13 seats (-7)
CPK - 10 seats (-6)
RESULT: Federalist Party Minority Government
VS: This is exactly the type of result I was talking about, about the left getting organized. While the KPP and NPP did lost a combined 15 seats, Premier Michael Windsor's otherwise stable majority government is gone having lost 18 seats between himself and the Conservatives. I think this election was a message for the Premier and the message was clear that the voters of Kenai weren't happy and expected more. This was likely to punish him. He's going to have do a bit more wrangling and negotiating to get further with his caucus, probably cut deals with the SLP if I was to guess to keep his government solvent as the Conservatives alone just aren't going to cut it this time.
RC: This is going to have an interesting impact on the federal level to. Port Prosperity is the headquarters of the Federalists nationally, but their caucus here has been cut in half in the past 8 years. I think we'll find the conservative influences out of Adelia have hold a greater impact now. That's really interesting since President Carmichael himself is from Kenai, and while he won it, his provincial counterparts didn't have the same luck.
AM: I tell you though, if I was in President Bokota's camp I would be a little worried right now. President Carmichael is up over 4 million votes on his closest competitor and that competitor isn't her. Unless things change she might become the first Hutorian President in recent memory to NOT make it to the second round in her re-election bid. For President Carmichael it's definitely looking like that campaigning effort and support from the Conservatives is coming in handy as that's the second straight Province they've helped him convincingly win, it might not be the massive victory of 4 years ago but it's still damn impressive and we haven't even moved into the conservative heartland yet.
PW: On that note it would appear that across the Macon Mountains in Adelia the Polls are closing and we take our eyes to Hutori's southern Province.
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Adelia
PW: Now on the close, like in Kenai, the Federalists had a very powerful and potent minority government under Tim Partridge who has been Premier since his massive sweep in 26. Also like Kenai he had his Majority mandate lost in 30, losing half of his caucus. The Opposition Adelia Progressive held a fairly powerful 32 seat caucus. The NPP held 24 seats, mostly around Axminister while the APP held most of their 13 seats in or around Glentingham while the Conservative Party of Adelia's 9 seats were mostly focused in the suburbs of Acton and Bekenial.
VS: I think the last time Adelia was a bit of an anamoly. Premier Partridge lost half of his caucus, in 4226 he had a 79 seat majority government, he was literally a seat away from having an unbreakable supermajority, something that is effectively unheard of by a single party in Hutorian politics anymore. The Adelia Progressive actually did phenomially well province wide, in a province that rarely votes in left wing parties outside of Axminster at all. That they held such a powerful caucus at Williams Park for 4 years was a incredibly feat. Premier Partridge actually had to play nice a lot to get stuff done.
RC: Adelia however has always been the centre of Hutorian conservatism. Most right wing parties in Hutorian history use Adelia as their base and fortress and its rare that any Party beyond a right wing party holds Power in Acton in the Premier's chair. 46 Senators from Adelia also made up a full third of the Federalists caucus in the last sitting.
AM: I think most people were actually quite surprised how weak the Conservatives played out last time in Adelia. This is the centre of Hutorian conservatism and royalism but yet the Conservatives were only able to post 9 Senators to Bekenial and Richard Steuart actually came in dead last in the Presidential election in 30. This was one Province that no one could deny that Carmichael won in the 1st round. I think he beat Brandon Green by over a million votes at the end of the first round, but then the 2nd round, the shocking combined left vote actually won President Bokota the Province with 7.5 million votes. If she can repeat that again, she might still be competitive.
PW: The result are filtering in and it looks like President Carmichael is going to sweep Adelia by a significant margin here in the first round. President Bokota has come in a distant 2nd place followed by Warren Platt of the Proletarians. HBC is also making it's second prediction of the night that former President Jason Carmichael is going to win the 1st Round of the Presidential Race. It also looks like Premier Partridge will be easily returned as Premier of Adelia as HBC is predicting the Federalists have won the most amount at Williams Park.
Presidential Race
1. Jason Carmichael - 7.2 Million Votes
2. Kim Bokota - 2.1 Million Votes
3. Warren Platt - 1.1 Million Votes
4. Martin McCaskill - 1.1 Million Votes
5. Ali Khosravi - 614,000 Votes
TOTAL NATIONWIDE
1. Jason Carmichael 15.6 Million Votes
2. Warren Platt - 5.6 Million Votes
3. Kim Bokota - 4.6 Million Votes
4. Ali Khosravi - 4.4 Million Votes
5. Martin McCaskill - 4 Million Votes
Adelia Seat Counts
FP - 54 seats (+12)
NPP - 21 seats (-3)
CPA - 18 seats (+9)
APP - 11 seats (-2)
SLP - 10 seats (+10)
AP - 6 seats (-26)
RESULT: Federalist Party Minority Government
RC: If there is anyone surprised by this showing by the Federalists and Conservatives I would be surprised. Not only did Partridge easily keep his government, but he hugely increased his caucus size while the Conservatives doubled their own. I'm sure that the Premier is calling Amelia Woodbury and Richard Steuart as we speak because they campaigned heavily here not just for President Carmichael but also for a lot of provincial Federalists Senators in riding they knew were vulnerable.
VS: This is very possibly one of the biggest electoral collapses by a party I've seen in recent memory. The Adelia Progressives were not an active opposition after being handed a very strong Opposition Mandate by the Adelian voters and the one thing history had proven, with Adelia's constant flirtations with big right wing governments, Adelia is vindictive when it comes to punishment. It looks like the Federalists are now everywhere around the Province, the Conservatives have expanded their base in Bekenial and Acton. Even the "nice" voters in Axminster widely wiped out the Progressives handing most of their seats over to the SLP.
AM: I will say that the Progressive bad luck here in Adelia is good news for President Bokota. With the massive margin Carmichael is up this is now the fight for who will be challenging him in the second round and Hutori's traditionally left voters usually side with centre-left candidates. With the stalling of momentum by Khosravi and McCaskill not able to focus enough support together it looks like the fight to represent the left is going to come between Platt and Bokota. I also agree with my colleague, if President Carmichael wins this race, I promise you the first thing he's doing is calling Amelia Woodbury and giving her one hell of a thank you, because I think we can safely say the Conservatives endorsement are what allowed him to so easily win the first round.
PW: Pushing through the mountains now we turn our attention to mountain Lagard as the polls have begun to close.
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PW: At dissolution the NPP held an immensely powerful minority position, holding 49 seats at Thomas House. The Opposition Federalists held just over half those seats at 25 seats with the SLP coming right up behind them with 23 seats. The LPP held 12 seats, the LP held 9 seats while the Conservatives only had a pair of MLAs and Senators in Constantine.
AM: This was the lynchpin for President Bokota four years ago. She took an easy first round win here winning five and a half million votes, and her second round victory was an even deeper landslide with the final tally being something like 8 million votes Province wide, the margin was just absolutely obscence. If the NPP was expecting to hold anywhere in Hutori Lagard was it.
RC: On that point I can't agree more. When the Federalists collapsed in 4230, the NPP were the ones ready and willing to step in and take the mantle in Constantine and did just that. The Premier has held a strong capable mandate throughout his term and I think he going to be ready to defend this ground. All the polls show that Lagard voters identify very closely with the NPP.
VS: If President Bokota is looking anywhere to secure the first round win, she couldn't have picked a better Province. The sheer margins she won by 4 years ago more or less nullified the advantage Carmichael has earned in Adelia and Kenai and I expect she's hoping to do the same.
PW: Word is just in, it does indeed look like President Kim Bokota will win Lagard in her race for President with former President Jason Carmichael coming in a very strong second place and Warren Platt coming up in third. At this point in time HBC is confident enough to predict that President Kim Bokota has finished in 2nd Place in the 1st Round of the Presidential Race and will go on to face Jason Carmichael in the 2nd Round. HBC is also predicting that the NPP Government will last another round and secure another minority mandate.
Presidential Race
1. Kim Bokota - 4.9 Million Votes
2. Jason Carmichael - 4.6 Million Votes
3. Warren Platt - 1.3 Million Votes
4. Ali Khosravi - 990,000 Votes
5. Martin McCaskill - 650,000 Votes
TOTAL NATIONWIDE
1. Jason Carmichael - 19.9 Million Votes
2. Kim Bokota - 9.5 Million Votes
3. Warren Platt - 6.9 Million Votes
4. Ali Khosravi - 5.4 Million Votes
5. Martin McCaskill - 4.6 Million Votes
Lagard Seat Counts
NPP - 49 seats (N/C)
FP - 35 seats (+10)
LPP - 12 seats (N/C)
LP - 9 seats (N/C)
CPL - 9 seats (+7)
SLP - 6 seats (-17)
RESULT: National Progress Party Minority Government
AM: Well I can't I'm entirely surprised by this result. The margins she won by 30 I think guaranteed she was going to take Lagard. Though I promise you there are a lot of people sweating bullets in Bokota's camp right now. I do not think she was expecting to lose by the huge margins she did here in the first round.
VS: Honestly the most surprising thing about this election result is the fact only the SLP lost seats in Lagard. The Lagard Progressives, Proletarians the National Progress Party all held their seat counts, but the SLP imploded here in the same way the Adelian Progressives did. I can promise you there is going to be some head scratching in Social Liberal headquarters as they try for the next four years to unravel this one.
RC: The NPP Premier was easily able to hold his majority and he has his pick of any coalition partner he wants, likely the Lagard Progressives and Social Liberals. At this point the only mystery left here is the prairies.
PW: The final polls in the nation are closing and we finally looking towards Falristan.
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Falristan
PW: At dissolution the National Progress Party held a minority mandate with 28 seats with a very strong Conservative Opposition holding 25 seats. The Falristan Progressives were close behind with 23 seats, the Falristan Proletarian and Federalists, centred around Saint John and Carter City respectively held onto a respectable 18 seats while the Social Liberal Party, mostly from Cork Town, held onto 8 seats.
RC: I know the NPP were worried about Falristan. Carter City loves their provincial responsibilities and have had a very loud opposition from the Conservatives, Federalists and Proletarians hammering at the NPP Premier for most of past 8 years demanding he stand up and stop cowing to Bekenial, and together the Opposition held 61 seats, enough for the NPP to have to make constant concessions to one of them to get anything done over most of the past four years.
VS: I know both the Conservatives and the SLP have been pushing to make real inroads here. The SLP want to move away from Cork Town alone and move into urban Carter City and Tremaine, really prove they can be a force at Carter City. The Conservatives Leader of the Official Opposition, Elias Velasco, is considered one hell of a scary firebrand and was considered for a cabinet position in Bekenial if he had run federally.
AM: We all know how the Presidential race is going to end here. Unless Warren Platt can sweep the entire left wing vote President Bokota already has it.
PW: The last polls are in and I can confirm that former President Jason Carmichael has won Falristan and ultimately won the first round of the Presidential race. President Kim Bokota, who finished second in the Province also came in second and will race Carmichael in the second round. HBC is also predicting an upset as it appears the NPP government has been defeated and the Conservative Party of Farlristan will form a minority government in Carter City.
Presidential Race[/u]
1. Jason Carmichael - 4.8 Million Votes
2. Kim Bokota - 3.1 Million Votes
3. Ali Khosravi - 1.9 Million Votes
4. Warren Platt - 1.8 Million Votes
5. Martin McCaskill - 550,000 Votes
Falristan Seat Counts
CPF - 32 seats (+7)
NPP - 30 seats (+2)
FPr - 18 seats (-5)
FP - 18 seats (N/C)
FPP - 17 seats (-1)
SLP - 5 seats (-3)
RESULT: Conservative Party of Falristan Minority Government
VS: Now this I have to say is probably the biggest surprise of the night overall. The NPP was able to gain a bit of ground at the expense of the Falristan Progressives but it looks like the Conservatives came straight out of left field and took seats from everyone except their allies in the Federalists and took the cake with a very slim government. Its going to make things interesting in Carter City.
RC: Elias Velasco is a Conservative firebrand and unbashed monarchist and devolutionist. He is going to be a pain in the ass for Bekenial, no matter who is sitting at 24 Orange Avenue and Ross House, but even more so if its President Bokota again. Considering his close and good relationship with both the Federalists and Falristan Proletarians he is likely going to have an easy job governing and able to spend the bulk of his time proding Bekenial to let him and his cohorts handle more of their own affairs.
AM: It does add an interesting dynamic to the Senate. In the last sitting the Roccato caucus of the Conservatives held the whip, now with Falristan in the lead we will likely be seeing a new Senate Leader, likely from there.
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NATIONAL SENATE ELECTION RESULTS AND BREAKDOWN
Federalist Party (FP) - 164 seats (+17)
National Progress Party (NPP) - 137 seats (-17)
Conservative Party of Hutori (CPH) - 90 seats (+8)
Hutorian Proletarian Party (HPP) - 85 seats (-20)
Hutori Progressives (HP) - 73 seats (-8)
Social Liberal Party (SLP) - 51 seats (+20)
RESULT: FP Plurality
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Presidential Election - Second Round
Second Round - 56,345,337 Total Votes
1. Jason Carmichael (Federalist Party) 29,838,572 Votes (52.8%)
2. Kim Bokota (National Progress Party) 26,506,765 Votes (47.2%)
Result - Jason Carmichael Elected President of the Federal Republic of Hutori
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This has been Patrick White with HBC and Elections Night in Hutori. Thank you for watching and have a good night.