NOWOGARD - The National Intelligence Agency (NAW), commissioned by the Minister of Special Services, Patrycja Zaradkiewicz, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Filip Taranowicz, has prepared a report on the deteriorating international situation in northern Seleya, particularly Likatonia and Lodamun, and international relations between the two countries. For nearly a decade now, the situation north of Valruzia seems to be worsening and the likelihood of a hybrid conflict is, according to NAW, increasingly real. NAW points out the threats posed by the current situation in Lodamun, which it describes in several points as a 'hybrid civil war', and the countermeasures that the government in Nowogard should consider and implement in order to guarantee national security and stability of international relations on the continent. The report has not been made public in full - only sections of the report marked as open have been made public.
The current internal tensions in Lodamun and the risk of an open civil war should be constantly and intensively monitored in order to stop any possible conflict that could go beyond the borders of our northern neighbors, which would involve the spread of undesirable practices and political doctrines that characterize the current political scene in Lodamun. It should be in the best interests of the Valruzian government to act to stop at all costs the spread of subversive activities by groups originating from Lodamun and to prevent such activities from taking place on the Lodamun side of the border in order to stem a possible humanitarian crisis and an intense influx of people seeking refuge for humanitarian and political reasons. Therefore, according to NAW, the government in Nowogard should not exclude the possibility of military intervention in border areas if the current government in Providence, Andalay, is not able to guarantee the tightness of the borders and to prevent the outbreaks of internal conflict from spreading to other regions.
NAW assesses the possibility of turning the current situation in Lodamun into an open, full-scale civil war in Lodamun as
fully probable. At the same time, NAW has pointed out in its report a very important issue, namely the
lack of a single, central center of power that could guarantee peace and the integrity of the country. NAW points out that the current ruling EAPP-PNG coalition is blatantly violating human rights and
publicly admits that it is prepared to commit the crime of genocide in order to maintain power. According to NAW's experts, the lack of a single center of power with high public support creates the risk of a power vacuum which, in turn, could lead to the disintegration of society and the emergence of self-proclaimed governments which, like the current government, will not be able to build public trust and, as a result, lead to
absolute social stratification and widespread poverty, hunger, and humanitarian crisis.
At the same time, NAW highlights the fact that organizations such as the
World Congress and its Security Council do not take any action, even to monitor the situation and the violations of fundamental or
human rights, which are commonly violated by all parties to the conflict. NAW recommends in its report to the government of Nowogard to prepare itself to act against human rights violations and crimes of genocide committed in Lodamun. At the same time, NAW points out that other countries are washing their hands of the matter under the pretext of respecting the internal affairs of Lodamun, but according to NAW, this runs counter to the main objective of the World Congress, i.e.
to protect international security, and the current and further development of the internal conflict in Lodamun poses a serious threat not only to Seley's security but also to international order.
In the same report, in the section devoted to the steadily deteriorating relations between Nowogard and Likatonia, intelligence points to the need for calibration in bilateral relations, and to Nowogard taking a more resolute approach because, according to intelligence, the government in Clovisport seems to be more inclined to reason the arguments of power than other arguments. NAW simply points to overestimated military capabilities that are not in line with the government's official policy and budgetary policy. Annually, LIktaonia spends 41.5 billion on LIK's defense, which gives VPO 81 billion - 10 times less than Nowogard's defense spending (VPO 815 billion in 4761). NAW points out the lack of cohesion of press releases and the lack of budgetary cohesion allocated to defense.
According to NAW, Likatonia's military capability is much lower than in the press image created by the local rulers. According to NAW's assumptions, the overestimation applies to all branches of the armed forces, and for example, the operational capacity of the Likatonia navy is estimated at a maximum of 25 medium-sized ships, which would still put the budget of the local navy under strain, similar to the Air Force - Likatonia in press releases creates a fiction in which the Likatonia Air Force would have nearly 300 planes, including more than 150 fighters, but NAW points out that with the current budget for the maintenance of machines serving in the armed forces, the maximum number of fighters in full combat readiness is no more than 65 machines. In the same report, however, NAW recommends that the government strengthens border controls and directs more units to border areas in order to exert influence and psychological pressure to force a change in policy towards Nowogard. At the same time, NAW stresses the willingness of the Clivisport government to improve bilateral relations.