Leuchtfeuer von Aloria
The Election: In Depth Analysis of the Upcoming Vote
- Who are likely to be the big winners?
- Who is likely to lose out?
- Will Wehnert win a third term?
- Or will the RSF end the Right's recent hegemony in the Senate?The city of Concordia, Caermoel. This was previously won comfortably by the RSF. However, could either the AFP or the DA beat them this time?Its that time again folks. The Alorians don't have much time left before they're back at the polls, ready to vote in a new government, and potentially a new future. The last four years certainly haven't been plain sailing. Violent strikes savaged the country, in particular our capital, and the rhetoric fired across the Senate has been heating up ever since. The leave vote won by less than 2%, resulting in a divided Aloria. And the economy is coughing and spluttering as it tries, for the first time under a Wehnert Presidency, to kick start itself.
Nevertheless, this Ministry has most definitely implemented reform. They privatised the banking sector - a long term goal for much of the Right within Aloria. They introduced subsidies for those who cannot afford private healthcare. And perhaps most resoundingly, they introduced a minimum wage into Aloria, ending the needless poverty of many Alorians in lower-income jobs.
Naturally the most talked about point of this administration will be the ongoing feud between the RSF on the one side, and the ALP and AFP on the other. The point of clash is obvious enough. Both sides claim the other are "fascists", and both claim the other is detrimental to the nation. Whilst attacks have decivilised from political to personal, the potential for it to have a profound political effect at the upcoming election is massive. Whichever side the majority of voters take in this argument, is the side that will win the election.
However, there is a further layer to the complexity of the scenario. These three parties are not the only parties in Aloria. Whilst the AFP and RSF may be the only two who anyone can say has a reasonable chance of commanding the position of largest party, the other parties on the sidelines could end up being kingmakers if the voters, for a third election in a row, give us a hung parliament.
The first two are the larger Labor Party and Demokratische Allianz. Both parties are not particularly vocal in their attacks, but hold a strong base of support, that gives them both a high level of voting power when it comes to the Senate. Whilst the Labor Party is larger, it is also out on its own in the big ocean of Alorian politics, being the only party to occupy the authoritarian left. Whilst this means less competition, it is not a position that Alorian voters have ever had much stomach for. A very democratic-oriented electorate has meant that, with the introduction of more parties, the Labor Party has all but lost any power it held in the 4260s. It would hope that this election may steady the ship, however in truth, it can only expect more losses - maybe ending with as low as fifty seats come October.
Meanwhile, the DA are the main libertarians in Aloria right now. They hold less conservative views to those of most ALP and AFP politicians, and are willing to back more social liberties. For this reason, the DA will undoubtedly be the dark horses of this election. They have policies that resonate with Alorian voters, and they will hope that the ongoing scrap between the other parties will act as a way of attracting more voters to their cause. In the case that both the AFP and RSF collapse due to the row, something that is not beyond the realms of possibility, the DA will be best placed to create a new government, that would most definitely shift to becoming a more globalist, and more libertarian government than we have seen in the last decade.
We then go further down to the even smaller parties in the Senate currently. The PLN/NLP, EFP, and PTB. The latter of these is fairly easy to predict. The PTB, who have not influenced much in the way of legislation and debate will most probably come out of the next election as the smallest party. Whilst they should see a rise in seats, success will be reaching double figures in the Senate. The EFP will most likely also struggle. They have poor visibility amongst voters, especially in comparison to all the other parties, and they will suffer as a result. They will not be able to win the 43 seats that they won in 4273, and would most likely be happy if they could score in the high teens.
The final party, the PLN/NLP are a tricky one to predict. One would expect them to be looking at trying to beat the EFP and the PTB. The other parties look too far ahead for them to make major gains, and whilst they shouldn't see a repeat of their disastrous 4273 elections, they cannot really expect themselves to be any better than the third smallest party. Having said that, they are one of the most vocal parties within the Senate, and leader Reinhallt, has done a very good job in maneuvering them around controversy, and keeping the party out of the worst of the tension. For that reason, should the Labor Party or the ALP really mess up when it comes to polling day, they could see themselves taking a few seats.
In truth, the results of this election can only be guessed and second-guessed. The voters have not given a party over thirty percent of the vote since 4268, where the Labor Party had a reasonably easy time against newly forming RSF, and the returning ALP. For this reason, anything to end up happening on results day.
But what will be the most likely outcome? Leuchtfeuer von Aloria believes that Wehnert will get another term, and the Alorian Right will retain their majority. We predict that the RSF will become the largest party in the Senate fractionally above the AFP, whilst the DA will make large gains to close in on the two currently leading parties. However, we think that the Labor Party will have a poor showing, and drop behind both the DA and ALP - remaining only marginally ahead of the PLN/NLP.
OOC: This is not necessarily the view of my party, the PLN/NLP. Hopefully this is as unbiased, and as accurate an account as possible.