Beluzia

[albatrosinus]

Beluzia : before the elections

We're in late July 3667, and elections will be held in early September. Who is going to win?

The Freedom Party is probably the most influent party of Beluzia. The close National Federalist Movement is just behind it. But the New Beluzian Movement may be more lucky this time. As the far-left Autonomous Commons Party vanished, the New Beluzian Movement is probably the party that will grab its seats. It would then be the leading party of Beluzia.

The decay of the Stanton House has not been unnoticed. And although the Beluzian Syndicalist Party has been inactivated, three new parties are coming : the Fair Beluzia party, the Nationalism-Fascism Party and the Peace Party.

So who will win?

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Coalitions Analysis

The newspapers' Mathematics Division made a calculation to determine what coalitions were the most likely.

National Federalist Party and Freedom Party Coalition : 32.8%
Freedom Party and Stanton House coalition : 21.2%
New Beluzian Movement and Stanton House coalition : 15.4%
National Federalist Party and Stanton House coalition : 11.7%
National Federalist Party and New Beluzian Movement coalition : 10.0%
Freedom Party and New Beluzian Movement coalition : 8.9%

Freedom Party
Estimated probability to win : app. 40%
Probability to be in a coalition : 62.9%
This party is probably going to lead.

National Federalist Party
Estimated probability to win : app. 25%
Probability to be in a coalition : 54.5%
This party will likely be in a coalition. This is explained by its political similarity with Freedom Party.

New Beluzian Movement
Estimated probability to win : app. 25%
Probability to be in a coalition : 34.3%
Being the only left-wing party, the NBM is less likely to be in a coalition than the NFP.

Stanton House
Estimated probability to win : app. 10%
Probability to be in a coalition : 48.3%
This HUGE difference is explained by the centrism of the Stanton House. The Stanton House is way closer to the NBM than other right-wing parties, but it also has strong links with FP and NFP.

The FP-NFP or FP-SH coalitions are likely to be the next government.

I did not take in consideration, though, the case of a great FP-NFP-SH coalition in case of NBM victory... but I think it is really unlikely.

[albatrosinus]

Now the "Fair Beluzia" party has been renamed "Better Beluzia".

The 12th Common Sense Bill
This Conservative bill is fighting for traditional values. Although SH and NBM are against this law, NFP abstains so the law is going to pass... except if the elections happen before the deadline!

Better Beluzia, the little party that does like a big
Better Beluzia, the new coalition of left-wing parties, is creating new laws : especially economical reforms to make Beluz economy more communist, and a driving law that create "Driving Licenses" but also repeals the awful "Driving Embelishment" law, a law that forces all 18-40 persons to drive naked, a law that stayed here, for more than a millenium.

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Late August Edition

Stanton House approves "Driving Law"
It is the first time a party supports Better Beluzia's efforts.

Better Beluzia's law to reduce legislature's term length has been rejected by Stanton House

Election to be held! No poll available

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September 3667 Edition

Elections will be held in October!
No one knows the real reason...

The 12th Common Sense Bill passed!
It is great for the Freedom Party, but it is awful for the NBM.

Better Beluzia believes it is the successor of the Autonomous Commons' Party
NBM is indignated, Freedom Party laughs.

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Beluz Liberal Newspaper
September 3rd

Freedom Party supports the Driving Law
Right-wing parties support this bill made by a left-wing party. Seems to be a good choice!
Better Beluzia wants proportional elections
FP laughs.

Is the National Federalist Party going idle?
It has been a year since this party did anything. We wonder if it will come back into the political debates (because if it doesn't, it is a huge loss for the FP)

---
Beluz Liberal Newspaper,
Supporting the New Beluzian Movement and Better Beluzia.

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Early September Edition

ELECTIONS FINALLY HELD
We do not know the exact results, but we can tell some elements :
Although the Freedom Party remained the largest, the president now belongs to the NBM.

Stanton House got many seats and his now a larger party than the NFeP (National-FEderalist Party).

Better Beluzia got almost one hundred seats, just a little under the NFeP.

The NFaP (National-FAscist Party) got almost 50 seats.

The Peace Party did not get any seats.

No coalition has been made.

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September Edition

DETAILED RESULTS OF THE ELECTIONS

For the Grand Consul Election, only the NFaP did not participate.

The first round saw the Freedom Party first, the NBM second, and (astonishingly) Better Beluzia third.

But in the second round it is the left-wing candidate Ferdián D'ella that got elected with 54.44%

[size=150]Legislative elections results[/size=150]

FP - 215 seats. First in Bailon and Parlos Decina. Second in Iker Ado and Iliathar. Fourth in Negunia.

NBM - 168 seats. First in Negunia. Second in Parlos Decina. Third in Iker Ado. Fourth in Bailon. Fifth in Iliathar.

SH - 120 seats. Second in Bailon. Third in Iliathar. Fourth in Iker Ado and Parlos Decina. Fifth in Negunia

NFeP - 105 seats. First in Iker Ado. Third in Bailon. Fourth in Iliathar. Fifth in Parlos Decina. Sixth in Negunia.

BB - 96 seats. First in Iliathar. Third in Negunia and Parlos Decina. Fifth in Bailon. Seventh in Iker Ado

NFaP - 46 seats. Sixth everywhere except in Negunia where it is second.

PP - No seats. Seventh everywhere except in Iker Ado where it is fifth.

[albatrosinus]

New elections!

Early election request has been accepted.

NBM still in power, FP still largest.

Better Beluzia still winning seats, now third.

Fascist are no longer sucking blood of our nation...

BB and NBM still unable to make a coalition. A coalition with the NFP is under discussion. (probably voted)

BB going federal! Nobody knows why (although most people think it is to win more seats... and be superior to the NBM... )

[albatrosinus]

The 13th Common Sense Bill, too much for everyone

All the other parties voted against this Freedom Party's law. The beginning of something better???