BNN: General Election, Common Conservative Party become the largest party but with no overall majority. Could a coalition be formed and with what parties? Communists win 26 seats in surprise result.
The final votes have been counted and the national results now are finalised, the common conservatives come out as the largest party with 37% of the national vote share which is more than what most polls where predicting before the final exit poll was shown. They gain 318 of the 859 seats on offer which is a considerably large amount of seats but not enough to have an overall majority. During the election night we got to speak to Kenshin Minamino, the Common Conservative Party leader. Are interviewer discussed the aftermath of the election and possibility of a coalition potentially with the liberals.
Mr. Minamino, it seems that your party will be the largest in the National Assembly according to the exit poll that we have seen at the moment, congratulations, but it doesn't mean that your party will necessarily be in government and due to that reason will you possibly entertain the idea of entering into coalition with the Liberal Party?
BNN reporterWell an election poll is exactly that, a poll, and i think we need to hold some degree of humility as exit polls can give out rogue results but i do think that this poll is very consistent with what we've been hearing on the ground in that their has been a good push for my party in this election, We do certainly need a strong government to manage the country in the next five years hopefully, and we the conservatives are open to talks on sensible ideas for governing with other parties.
- Kenshin Minamino (leader of the CCP)
- Kenshin MinaminoElection summarySo how did the election go for the parties? For the 10 parties that won seats its fair to say that some of them are much happier than others. Such as the
Common Conservative Party who would be quite happy with the result they got. Most polls predicted the conservatives to get around as low as 29% to as high as 35% of the voter share, in the end they got 37% which is a good surprise for them unless they already expected that via the voters who they spoke to on the ground. Now being the most likely to form a government, if they cannot from a deal to be backed in as a minority government or form a coalition with another party then the next few days and weeks in politics will of course be very interesting indeed. The CCP will certainly want to be in the next government and not in opposition. The
Social Labour Party wont be to upset with what they got in this election, predicted prior to the election to get in between 23% to 27% of the vote share and they did exactly that with 25% of it in the end indeed going to them with a decent 215 seats in the bag. They are favourites to be the main opposition but it may not be unlikely for them to be the largest party in a coalition government unless they go into coalition with the conservatives which is of course extremely unlikely.
Peace First Would surely be extremely disappointed and upset with how the election panned out for them with their being practically zero chance of care taker chancellor Liú jūn returning as Prime Chancellor. They were predicted to get as low as 18% or as high 23% of the vote share but in the end they got just only 16%. It never helps either when the party leader claims that they could win the election all together. The
Liberal Party wont mind the result they got, especially if it makes them the potential and all but confirmed king makers for the next five or so years. They were predicted to have between 11% for the low result and 15% for the high result, the 13% they got in the end will seem pretty decent.
Traditional Voice were a hard party to predict, most polls being all over the place with some predicting that they would get as low as 2% of the vote share whilst others gave them some optimism with their predictions with a possible 12% of the vote. In the middle of the polling mess some party leaders where outspoken on them and a party leader said "With these polls being unclear I must say that what ever we actually get in the results I'm sure we will be happy as it shows the true views of the people". They got a respectable 5% of the vote in the end. The
Communist Party of Bianjie, Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night. They were not given much of a chance by pollsters up until the end of the campaign really and then right before the election the polls predicted them to get between 0.4% to 1% of the share so to get 3% and the 26 seats with that must of been a great achievement for the far left party. They are unlikely to be able to dictate any form of arrangement with other parties to get into government but could maybe as a wild card, bring fourth some policy ideas to other parties.
The
Ubiquitous National Party got roughly what they where predicted to get with 0.4% of the vote and a nice 3 seats to go along with it. The
Green Party were predicted to be given around 0.8% to 0.9% but in the end they got only 0.2% of the vote share. The
Rational Democratic Party where predicted to get between 0.4% and 0.8%, they fell short and got 0.2% which was the same as the greens. The
Zhèngyì Party got 0.1% of the vote share.
The next governmentSo the big question is, what parties are going to form the next government of Bianjie? Well we the BNN think their may be two main possible and ideal ways. Both involving the liberals. Or is their a another way?
The first possible way of forming a government is option A. Option A (the most likely solution) is for the Common Conservatives and the Liberals to enter into a formal coalition with each other and create a centrist (or even centre right) leaning cabinet. If one was to combine the total number of seats the conservatives have and the total number of seats the liberals have then one would get 430 seats, the exact amount needed for a majority! As if the stars themselves have aligned and this was meant to be. The Common Conservative Party and Liberal party are not too far driven ideologically, both having much in common, such as wanting a smaller state, balanced immigration checks, maintaining military spending, keeping taxes low on individuals, etc. But its what they don't have in common which may be a key turner or a door locker for many. Social policies, corporation tax, abortion rights, the death penalty and drug reform are some of the many things the conservative and liberal parties disagree on. They would have to kink out those nicks and bumps on the negotiation table. If not a coalition then what about a deal? if the Liberals don't want to go into coalition then they still do have the option to give the strings of power to the CCP if they don't trust the more left wing parties to have power. The Liberals could give the conservatives all the power, cabinet and leading roles in the National Assembly but they would need to prop up a conservative minority government, really giving them a good slice of power which is unseen to the naked eye perhaps. This may accomplish a few things such as altering the policies of the CCP in the deal and being able to back a government if they see a coalition is not fit for the national interest or party political advantage.
What about option B. Option B is for the Liberals to enter a coalition with Peace First and the Social Labour Party, the two left leaning parties. The Liberals may want to appeal to the left leaning side of the party and voters and might think the CCP are a dangerous option for Bianjie. The Liberal Party do agree on many issues with the two left parties such as needed corporation tax, anti death penalty, need for a Human Rights Act, etc. and this option isn't really off the cards and could easily happen. But what the Liberals don't agree on with the two left parties is the same as what they don't agree on with the conservatives as in they are key turners or door lockers. The liberals don't agree with the SLP's policy of wanting a 32 hour work week or with Peace First's policy of wanting a high corporation and high luxury goods tax.
Its very unlikely that their will be any way of the CCP or SLP going into gov with any other party other than with PF and LP or with a deal.
The Common conservative Party: A centre right political party who are the most likely to form a government based on voting intention polls. The Common Conservative Party believe in liberty, economic Liberty, preserving Bianjie values and traditions, and a model of low taxation and smaller state. 
The Social Labour Party: A centre left party which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The Social Labour Party sits on the belief that social equality and class equality is key for any nation to prosper. 
Peace First: A centre left - left wing movement and is the current caretaker government. They're campaigning mainly for pacifist and environmentalist issues and take that key into this election as a promise. They take a progressive approach to social policies such as civil liberties, animal rights, and drug policy reform. The party also believes strongly in non-violence, universal basic income, a living wage, and democratic participation.
The Liberal Party: a centrist party which favours social reform, personal liberty, reducing the powers of the state and the complete abolishment of any form of potential monarchy or khanate with power. The party is primarily social liberal, sceptical of increasing the power of the state and emphasising the link between equality and liberty. The party supports investment and understands the need for progressive taxation even if the party is not keen on taxing individuals. Promotes civil liberties and a less centralised economy.
