Election 4764Socialist surge in urban centres and working class areas.Progressives falter in heartlands but gain in modernising towns.Action Party advances in rural areas but falls in suburbs,Election results. Above, popular vote share; below, number of seats.After months of contentious campaigning, the results have came in for the 4764 Vascanian federal election. Of 751 seats in the parliament, the Progressive Alliance has captured the plurality with 233, a loss of 41 seats from what the party - led by Prime Minister Subhas Luitail - held before the election. Their historic opponents, the Action Party won 202 under the leadership of Hasika Asuri. This is a net loss of 14, with heavy regional variances in net change for the right-wing group. These results are, however, not what has people talking this morning.
The results for the major parties were overshadowed by a dramatic surge in support for the hard-left Socialists, led by former union leader Faran Cunnarillat. They won 184 seats and took a quarter of the vote, an increase of 112 from the last election. Their success was solidified by astonishing figures in Bhaporistan, Utsal, Zaqrandi Pradesh and Hamal Pradesh - all states that they won by large margins with over 38% of the vote in each. Their gains primarily came at the expense of the Progressives' urban wing, which fell apart in cities like Kamalata, Ajuna and Sabuda - though some of these losses were made up for in affluent areas like Kayal Island.
The Communitarian Party failed to pass the 100 seat mark they set as their target, going from 84 to 98 thanks to gains in the small, industrial towns of interior Kalkalistan. The Agrarians and United Regional Group completely collapsed, winning less than 30 seats between them and being abandoned by their traditional voter bases in rural Khond and Rajavant. Indepedents also had a difficult night, reducing in number from 24 to 10 - though the night provided much joy to a certain Prem Joshi, a right-wing social commentator who decisively beat an openly gay, socially-liberal candidate in a wealthy Sangora suburb.
The Vascanian Empire is one of the world's most populous and expansive states, and as such results have varied from region to region. Here, Vascania News' election team will run through the results in the four geographical quarters of our nation, with an emphasis on key race results and the narratives to come out of a truly historic night.
VanakalamVote shares in Kalam Nadu and Avidangana.The northern coast of Vanakalam was a key target-zone for the Progressive Alliance, as wages and living standards in the area have increased significantly under Subhas Luitail's premiership. Indeed, the region gave some solace to the alliance on an otherwise underwhelming night. The campaign here was devoted to environmental issues and emphasising economic growth, which resulted in an 8% swing to the PA in certain, coastal council areas.
Sathush Suvanan narrowly held on for the Action Party in the key seat of Abalya, but Vrishin Perepa was defeated by rising centre-left star Jap Mantha in Adharsha. In his victory speach, Jap said his victory was as a direct result to getting the votes of dock workers involved in the new naval construction contracts. Overall, the region was won narrowly by the centre-left for the first time ever, though the Socialists did make a few gains in urban Thikkonagama from more moderate parties.
One of the key races that gained national attention was the battle between moderate independent Naveen Geerthakan and Prem Joshi, an infamous contributor of the conservative Sangora Post. Prem swept Naveen away in a blowout 20 point victory after a campaign emphasising Naveen's personal immorality as a homosexual and his atheism, though all major parties disavowed his campaign as counter to what Vascania is about in the modern era.
Eastern KalkalistanVote shares in Rajuttistan, Hamal Pradesh and Zaqrandi Pradesh.The national capital, Kamalata, was targeted fanatically by the Socialists and provided the first sign of a massive far-left surge when rising party star Aaliya Kamal demolished Progressive Anil Divakar by over 40 points in the ultra-urban seat of Kamalata Centre. The 'left behinds' who felt victimised by the gentrification brought about by federal policies swung so dramatically towards the leftists that Vascania News' swing-o-meter broke on the election night results show. This was yet another blood-letting for the Progressives in their traditional heartlands, even though the urban poor had stuck behind the PM for a while after his fall in seats last election.
Socialist Amish Kapadia defeated Progressive incumbent Dhani Upasani in Kamalata Bhatarshi, while some election analysts have suggested up to 6 regional list seats were decided just by the margins in the inner capital city. This was complimented in the north by a surge in support for the Socialists in Zaqrandi Pradesh - who performed well among Ahmadi voters - as well as in the south, where Hamal Pradesh went 38% for the Socialists and granted them seven of their eleven constituency seats and another one on the regional list for good luck.
Kayal Island, perhaps the pinnacle of the 'New Vascania' that the Prime Minister so often talks about, was completely dominated by the Progressives. Kayal Dravesha, a modernising, island seat held by Action Party's Vijya Srivastav, was taken by the centre-left alliance. The Prime Minister himself increased his personal majority by over 40 points. This is undoubtedly a sign of a significant shift in the type of voter who supports the centre-left's candidates to a middle class grouping who have benefited from internationalism and globalisation.
South-West KalkalistanVote shares in Khond and Rajavant.A full 20 seats were gained by the socialists in this region, mostly in the region around the sub-region of Ananti Pradesh, which shares more in common with neighbouring Bhaporistan that the southern coast of Rajavant. Among the seats the Socialists won here were those of the Party's leader - Faran Cunnarillat - and a number of regional list seats. This was primarily at the expense of the localists, who also lost out on the southern coastal seat of Vatavana West to Progressive Chhotu Nanku - a seat that has a lot in common with Kayal Island because of tech start-ups and increasing internationalisation.
The big gainers in the south west, however, where in fact the Action Party and their leader Hasika Asuri; winning seats like Dakheta and Virorka in the rural midsection of Khond and Rajavant respectively. This was a direct result of the large but expected movement of rural voters away from the stale Agrarian Party towards the larger, right-wing bloc - which had promised to take up the mantle of a pro-farming, socially conservative representative. Mrs Hasika specifically targeted the area because she assumed it to be a good practice ground for detoxifying her party, which had historically been seen as Rajutti-and-Kalam-centric.
North-West KalkalistanVote shares in Utsal, Bhaporistan and Sanashtra.The north-west was filled with good news for the Socialists, who won 84 seats in the region, up 49 from last time. The campaign here focused on what the government should prioritise their spending on, and the isolationist Socialists won the argument here that military spending is a distraction from internal development. The hard-left party won over 60% of the vote in Bhaporistan and took 12 seats from the Progressives after an urban sweep. Progressive Minister for Industry Ekalavya Devi, for example, was swept aside in his Durupa seat by Socialist Ektaa Mallick. Socialist Chaman Osmani also bested Progressive Somu Hamid in a fight over the 40%-Ahmadi urban seat of Saadal-Upasa.
The Communitarians went all-in on winning the industrial state of Sanashtra, but ended up just a few thousand votes short of the Socialists. They did, however, defeat Progressive Varsha Mahasaya in the town of Pagishka - welcoming former nurse Vinita Ghani into parliament, who is tipped to be their next justice critic. Ultimately, they could not overcome the Socialist surge that filled up the regional lists. The Progressives simply fell apart in an area that was once their heartland, perhaps the most clear sign yet of a major realignment in Vascanian politics.
In summary, the results spell a seismic shift in the voter base of the centre-left, with the wider national left splitting clearly based on how internationalisation has affected their communities. The Socialists have surged, but they have burnt bridges with the PM due to their unbending opposition to the reforms that Luitail prizes above all else. The Communitarians, Agrarians and other smaller parties probably don't feel particularly good about the results - but Prem Joshi is certain to be quite happy. The Action Party is still in the wilderness, but they might be just a bit further to the forest's edge now they have the rural south-west in their pocket.
As to who can form the next government, it looks like the incumbent Subhas Luitail will have the first crack at forming a government coalition. The Communitarians, unfortunately for them, are not large enough to help out. The Socialists would demand that he abandon his signature military reforms, which it is unlikely he would be willing to do. It is perhaps possible that a new coalition with the Action Party could be formed, provided that they abandoned their support for high tariffs and distanced themselves from Prem Joshi's politics. This is a price they may be just about willing to pay in order to prevent a government filled with metzists and trade unionists.