Election 4760:
SDP Vote Collapses Despite Government Popularity
Regionalists Hold Balance Of Power
Agrarians Gain Big In Southern KalkalistanElection results. Above, popular vote share; below, number of seats.In spite of what had widely been viewed as an economically successful term of governance, the governing Social Democratic Party has fallen in vote share spectacularly throughout the Empire. Under a mixed-member proportional system, the SDP fell back 100 seats exactly, with their rivals the national conservative Action Party -led by Hasika Asuri - losing 21 seats. The major parties' losses were caused by a surge in interest for the Empire's third parties, in particular the populist Communitarian Party (also called simply 'Community') and the hard-left Democratic Socialist Party (also known as 'the Socialists').
The result came as a surprise to the government, as their approval ratings were quite high throughout the country and polling had shown them losing only a dozen or so seats in the run up to the vote. Theories that people did not want to tell pollsters they were voting for more radical parties have been spread across social media, though pollster Iyati Paramannca says it is more likely that bad news in the final few days of the campaign hurt the government. In particular, recent stock market troubles, an embarrassing failed bid for a Security Council seat, an apathetic student voter base and the personal popularity of Community's leader Patala Kotadia were likely factors in the surprise result.
The result casts doubt on the ability of the Social Democrats to form government again, though they would certainly have support from the Socialists and almost certainly from the Green Party. The Action Party will likely use its popular vote victory as leverage in bringing the regional parties on board - as well as a handful of regional-aligned independents - who might otherwise resent the party for its historic pro-centralisation policies. A number of moderate independents may also be required to form government.
Community made major advances in the south, particularly in poorer towns. The Greens picked up a number of seats on the mostly upper-middle-class island of Kayal. The socialists stormed ahead in the troubled region of Bhaporistan, where the Action Party fared very poorly once again. Of course, Vascania is an extremely diverse and large country. In this article, we at Vascania News will break down the results for the public and any international sources. Below are the results when the country is split into four roughly equally-populated geographic and cultural areas.
VanakalamVote shares in Kalam Nadu and Avidangana.Vanakalam has always been a stronghold for the conservative Action Party, being an area that has developed massively since the Empire's creation. With the Action Party tracing its roots all the way back to the pro-democracy camp in the Vanakalamese Civil War, there was no question that the area would vote solidly for the right-wing bloc. Indeed, the SDP's vote share fell by around ten points in this region, having been at an all-time high last election - in the mid-thirties in terms of percentages. In particular, the Action Party won convincingly in the Sangora seats and in the countryside around Srishayini Temple. The SDP lost a number of seats in the Thikkonagama metropolitan area in the south of Kalam Nadu, though most of these individual members were re-elected via the regional list system.
The Greens made a number of gains in wealthier suburban towns and coastal areas, though they were unable to make a significant breakthrough. The Green leader, Kianosh Shapour, had suggested that the long-term goal of the Greens is to become the main opposition to the Action Party in their strongholds of Kalam Nadu and Kayal Island (which is in the next region we plan to cover). Only in the latter area did they succeed. The socialists and agrarians performed poorly in this area, possibly because of the lower level of poverty. Hasika Asuri, leader of the Action Party, won again in her own seat in Avidangana by a large margin.
Eastern KalkalistanVote shares in Rajuttistan, Hamal Pradesh and Zaqrandi Pradesh.Eastern Kalkalistan contains the national capital, Kamalata, which swung dramatically towards the the SDP in the last election. This seems to have mostly reversed in these new results, though the SDP held up better in Hamal Pradesh and Zaqrandi Pradesh, two cultural minority provinces that have less natural affection for the Action Party. The suburban areas around the capital have historically been heavily pro-Action, though there was a slight increase in Green Party support which was primarily at the expense of the Social Democrats. Indeed, throughout the region the SDP also lost to the more hard-line Socialists, who appealed to the less developed neighbourhoods of the capital and similar towns in Zaqrandi Pradesh.
Kayal Island was a top target for the Green Party, who were seeking to win over new supporters in the trendy towns on the eastern side of the island. They gained a handful of seats, two of them from Action Party members who stepped down. The Prime Minister Subhas Luitail was able to narrowly retain his seat on the western side of the island, though even if he had been defeated he would have been the first SDP name elected off the regional list. The Communitarians also unexpectedly edged out the Socialists in Hamal Pradesh and in the process topped the regional vote in a state for the first time.
South-West KalkalistanVote shares in Khond and Rajavant.South-West Kalkalistan gave the Communitarian Party a lot to be happy about on election night, with dramatic upsets in Rajavant as SDP members were pushed out of their seats and then rendered unable to rely on the list system to put them back in parliament. Community's leader Patala Kotadia trounced the incumbent Minister for Justice in a high-profile local race, though the Minister will now take Kotadia's space on the regional list instead. The area also provided some good news to the Agrarian Party, who had previously been a two-man band in the parliament. Partially through a successful regional list campaign in mid-Rajavant, those two members now have 41 more friends joining them in parliament, 16 of which are from the south-western part of Kalkalistan.
Localist parties also triumphed in the area, especially a number of smaller liberal-conservative parties focusing on transport issues, the upkeep of historic sites and respectful temple maintenance. This is a potentially good sign for the Action Party if it wants to reform government, as these types of local parties are far less likely to baulk at the idea of partnering with the right-wingers. The Greens made a number of gains as well, primarily on the more middle class southern coast of Rajavant.
North-West KalkalistanVote shares in Utsal, Bhaporistan and Sanashtra.North-West Kalkalistan was were the SDP fell back the most dramatically, shedding over twenty points from their popular vote percentage and with forty-two of their one-hundred losses in this region alone. They lost a number of seats in the densely populated cities of Utsal, mostly to the Democratic Socialist Party which invested its campaign staff very heavily in that area. Indeed, the leader of the DSP won his own seat there against a prominent and incumbent Independent who had made unpleasant remarks about Bhaporis on social media. The Community party also gained some seats from the SDP, largely in the working-class state of Sanashtra.
The Socialists blew every other party out of the water in the troubled region of Bhaporistan, which continues to suffer from sporadic ethnic conflicts and random attacks of law authorities. The Action Party, often blamed locally for some of the police-related tension, performed very poorly in the area - it also failed to make gains in Sanashtra despite a large and very well-funded get-out-the vote operation.
Overall, this election had a number of interesting and unexpected twists to it. Who forms government next is hard to say, though both the Social Democratic Party and the Action Party will certainly be trying to court smaller, regional parties in a desperate bid to get parliamentary approval and imperial ascent. Emperor Sanas III will invite a new Prime Minister to office whenever that moment occurs, whether it be incumbent SDP PM Subhas Luitail or Action Party leader Hasika Asuri.