Le Gardien: Traditionalism vs Progressivism as Election draws near!
The in-depth Report on the upcoming election!
Find out who we think will win...
...and who is set to lose out
The city of Atyr, Silliers, formerly a formidable SLP win. But will the government be able to regain this state or not?
Traditionalism versus progressivism. That is what is at stake in this election. The forces line up on either side, eyeing each other up and preparing for conflict. On one side we have the government - a progressive, liberal force standing on a platform of change and reform. On the other, a loose coalition of traditionalist parties that support strict moral codes above choice.
Without doubt the spark to this election has been the introduction of the PHC-ADCC. Their nationalistic and inward looking agenda has caused much ado within the Senate, and with the PUF declaring their willingness to join with them in a coalition, a very real prospect of a conservative government is just around the corner. Yet what is worrying is the fact that the PUF would most undoubtedly be the major partner in that coalition. The government would be run by homophobic stragglers who would abandon the city for the remote farmers that pledge their support to these extremists.
However, here comes Kanjor's knights in shining armour. The manner and splendour in which the government has implemented its policies from the last election can only be applauded. Rarely do you see a coalition as effective as the close bond we have seen between the Socialist Liberal Party and the Grand Parti Libertaire de Kanjor. Undoubtedly, this has helped see proper progressive reform be implemented across Kanjor - seeing people benefit from a capitalist system with a strong and stable safety net.
But who will be the winner in this election? Most sources would back coalition returning to government come December 4240. Their permissive stance on civil rights has been very popular, and the Income Free Zone has gone down a treat. Despite claims from the opposition that these parties do not care for the working classes, the quality of life for these people has increased during their Ministry, as the people of Kanjor are becoming more well off.
Further to that, the Foreign Minister's performance on the international stage, has been one that has helped lift Kanjor into the spotlight. Tobie Moineau, who is touted by some to be a future Prime Minister, or even President, has conducted himself brilliantly. Whilst his decision to wade into the Istalia-Rildanor Crisis was risky, it is clear that Kanjor's presence on the world stage has been noted, and people are now paying attention to a country once hidden under Rildanor's wing.
But what about their majority? Will it increase or decrease? With a seat change, it is hard to predict how many seats they will get but it would be reasonable to assume they would receive about the same - a 56.75% majority. It is quite probable that they may be able to gain a few seats from the Union Populaire Democrate, but as they are the only two progressive parties within Kanjor, it will be difficult for them to persuade any of the more conservative voters to back them.
As for what is now the third largest party, and a party that has remained almost silent throughout this Ministry, the UPD, we can only predict a further loss in seats. Whilst they should retain position above the PHC-ADCC, it is to be expected that the Popular Unity Front will overtake them. This can only be pinned to their inactivity within the Senate. Whilst the other parties have been incredibly active, the slow movements within the party will undoubtedly come back to bite them within the next election. Having said that, they could still end up playing King Maker. Should neither the PHC-ADCC/PUF nor the SLP/GPLK be able to form a majority, it will be their decision over who to ally with that will see a new government formed in Kanjor.
We now come to the Popular Unity Front, headed up by Antoine Bouvier. After an astonishing election saw the PUF take 78 seats, it really begs the question how high can they jump? I previously mentioned that Le Gardien believes the PUF will overtake the UPD, but Bouvier's party will most likely be aiming to overtake the GPLK as well. Whilst it is hard to measure how many seats they may get, we can safely say that they will not overcome the SLP as the largest party, and will most likely fall a few seats short of becoming the second largest party. However, the sky is currently the limit for a party that is offering a radical agenda to Kanjor.
The final party in the fray is PHC-ADCC. Whether they will make a massive imprint on the political scene - being so new - is something we will have to find out, however should they do, the PUF would be in a strong position to form a government with them. This coalition however could become a little shaky, with it being apparent from M. Bouvier's press conference recently that there is a difference of opinion regarding the restoration of the Monarchy. Having said that, these two parties are each others keys to power, and if they can find the right compromise, our progressive Kanjor could be put at risk.
So there you have it. The government are in a strong position to retain power, but a late surge in traditionalism could potentially leave us with a completely different kettle of fish. And that is all of course without factoring in the UPD. They are predicted losses, but where will those seats go? The SLP or the PUF? The GPLK or the PHC-ADCC? Traditionalism or Progressivism? We only have a few months before we find out.