September 4921The Zurmukht’i river, Hobrazia’s largest navigable river, flows from the Arszan mountains in Zargundia through Muzalkaz before crossing the Hobrazia-Luthori border and discharging in the Bay of Luthor. The river sustains a number of fish species, including plentiful trout and the endangered Hobrazian sturgeon. The Zurmukht’i is a significant source of water for both northern Hobrazia and southern Luthori, providing irrigation for farmers and – once purified – drinking water for many residents. The river also provides a method of waste disposal, although both the Hobrazian and Luthorian governments have attempted to discourage such usage. The river’s bright green color is appealing for many visitors, and in recent times the river has become a popular destination for paddlers and sport fishers.
The
Hobrazian Development Corporation proposes building a dam on the Zurmukht’i river in Muzalkaz, near the Luthorian border. The Corporation argues that such a construction would provide clean power, create a desirable reservoir, and have minimal negative impacts. The purpose of this report is to ascertain whether the dam’s negative environmental impacts would outweigh its potential benefits.
We analyzed the expected environmental impacts of the Zurmukht’i dam using a Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix, or RIAM. For clarity, the RIAM method assesses the dam’s potential impacts on the environment by analyzing criteria that fall into two groups:
(A) Criteria that are of importance to the condition, that individually can change the score obtained; and
(B) Criteria that are of value to the situation, but should not individually be capable of changing the score obtained.
Group A criteria are multiplied according to certain ratings, while group B criteria are summed according to certain ratings. The environmental score ES is obtained thusly:
(a1) × (a2) = aT
(b1) + (b2) + (b3) = bT
(aT) × (bT) = ES
A positive ES indicates a more beneficial criterion, while a negative ES indicates a non-beneficial criterion.
Each criterion is scored using the following schedule:
A1 (Importance of condition) – 0: No importance; 1: Important only the local condition; 2: Important to areas immediately outside the local condition; 3: Important to regional/national interests; 4: Important to national/international interests
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): Scale of -3 to +3, with -3 indicating major disbenefit or change; 0 indicating no change/status quo; and +3 indicating major positive benefit.
B1 (Permanence): Scale of 1-3, with 1 indicating no change and 3 indicating permanence.
B2 (Reversibility): Scale of 1 to 3, with 1 indicating no change and 3 indicating irreversibility.
B3 (Cumulative): Measures whether effects will develop a cumulative impact over time or combine with other effects for a larger impact. Scale of 1-3, with 1 indicating no change and 3 indicating cumulative/synergistic.
Criteria were assessed in the following categories:
- Physical/Chemical (PC)
- Biological/Ecological (BE)
- Sociological/Cultural (SC)
- Economic/Operational (EO)
For the Zurmukht’i dam, we analyzed the following impacts:
- PC1: Effects on the downstream water table.
- PC2: Effects on sediments deposited (or not deposited) downstream.
- PC3: Effects on the dam construction site, including the reservoir.
- BE1: Effects on aquatic species inhabiting the Zurmukht’i.
- BE2: Effects on downstream ecosystems that utilize the river.
- BE3: Effects on the Bay of Luthor.
- SC1: Effects on nearby communities.
- SC2: Effects on agriculture.
- SC3: Effects on drinking water accessibility.
- EO1: Effects on tourism.
- EO2: Effects on the construction trade.
- EO3: Effects on the Hobrazian power grid.
(OOC: The RIAM method was developed by Pastakia and Jensen (1998) and is a common method of evaluating environmental impact. Some sentences explaining the methodology have been lifted from Pastakia and Jensen’s paper, which is standard practice in creating a RIAM. I have adapted some of it to fit phpBB formatting. The analysis is original work.)PC1: Effects on the downstream water tableThe dam’s construction will significantly reduce the flow of water downstream, which will lower the water table in southern Middenriding (Luthori). This will reduce erosion in Middenriding soil and enable Luthorians to build more durable infrastructure. We do not expect that the dam’s construction will eliminate groundwater or make existing water completely inaccessible.
A1 (Importance): 2A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1B1 (Permanence): 3B2 (Reversibility): 2B3 (Cumulative): 3 PC2: Effects on sediments deposited (or not deposited) downstream. Category B The dam’s construction will impede the flow of sediments from the Arszan mountains to the Bay of Luthor. While this may increase erosion risk, primarily in Luthori, we believe that a lack of sedimentation may be offset by intentionally adding sediment to the Zurmukht’i river downstream of the dam. In addition, we expect sediment to build up behind the dam, and recommend that the Hobrazian Development Corporation plan to address this issue.
A1 (Importance): 2A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1B1 (Permanence): 2B2 (Reversibility): 2B3 (Cumulative): 2 PC3: Effects on the dam construction site, including the reservoir. The area surrounding the dam will be permanently impacted by construction. The reservoir will fundamentally change the valley, surrounding mountains, and the present ecosystem. Much of the river’s current banks will be transformed into a lake, and the coastline will be moved up significantly. However, any impacts to the dam’s construction site will be highly localized. As discussed elsewhere, the social impacts of the transformation are expected to be positive.
A1 (Importance): 1A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +2B1 (Permanence): 3B2 (Reversibility): 3B3 (Cumulative): 3 BE1: Effects on aquatic species inhabiting the Zurmukht’i. The Zurmukht’i is home to a number of freshwater fish, aquatic plants, and various amphibians and molluscs. No anadromous or catadromous species are known to inhabit the river. Non-fish species are expected to experience minimum disruption upriver, while effects will be largely minimal downriver. We anticipate relatively few immediate changes to vegetative, amphibious, or mollusk life throughout the river. Effects on fish will likely be more serious: while some species, like trout, will flourish in the newly-created reservoir, more long-ranging species like the Hobrazian sturgeon may diminish. We encourage the government to repopulate alternative rivers with threatened species.
A1 (Importance): 3A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1B1 (Permanence): 3B2 (Reversibility): 3B3 (Cumulative): 3 BE2: Effects on downstream ecosystems that utilize the river. Downstream ecosystems may be affected by lower water levels, reduced sediment-carried nutrients, and a disrupted riparian ecosystem. However, the river is but one source of nutrition and water for downstream ecosystems: with proper management by Luthorian authorities, minimal disruption can be expected. We do have some concern over the possibility of toxins such as mercury being carried downstream from the dam, and suggest that downstream authorities take appropriate actions to measure and address toxins.
A1 (Importance): 2A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1B1 (Permanence): 2B2 (Reversibility): 3B3 (Cumulative): 3 BE3: Effects on the Bay of Luthor. The Bay of Luthor is an important international body of water that is fed by the Zurmukht’i river. However, the Zurmukht’i is only one river discharging into the Bay: the Bay is also the terminus for rivers in Luthori, Ikradon, and Kundrati. Given the Bay’s size and the presence of alternative sources of sediment, we anticipate few disruptions. As with downstream river-side ecosystems, we have some level of concern over toxins being carried into the Bay – however, the sheer size of the water body alleviates our concerns.
A1 (Importance): 3A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): 0B1 (Permanence): 1B2 (Reversibility): 1B3 (Cumulative): 1 SC1: Effects on nearby communities. Nearby communities will experience the dam very differently. The village of Rosblana, which lies just behind the proposed dam site, will have to be relocated for the safety of its residents. Although Rosblana has protested the dam’s construction, the village’s size (approximately 200 Hobrazian citizens reside in the village year-round) is insignificant compared to the dam’s potential benefits. We recommend that the government use eminent domain to purchase Rosblana property at a fair value, and that the Hobrazian Development Corporation reimburse residents for their moving costs.
Some downstream communities have expressed fears that a dam failure could lead to catastrophic flooding, which might destroy farms, villages, and even cities. However, such fears lie mostly outside the scope of an environmental report: the possibility of dam failure is a purely engineering question, and we urge concerned citizens – whether Hobrazian or Luthorian – to contact HDC’s engineering department. Our analysts have been assured that the dam’s engineering will be sturdy enough to preclude the possibility of dam failure, and so we do not consider it a threat.
Other nearby villages and towns will experience diverse benefits from the dam’s construction. Even after construction, dam operation will continue to infuse much-needed cash and provide jobs for local communities. Cheap and clean hydropower will reduce pollution, bring drastically more affordable energy, and empower communities across Hobrazia to utilize more energy-heavy tools and appliances. Tourism will further enrich local communities, and a well-stocked reservoir will provide sport and subsistence fishing. We expect that the people positively affected by the dam will far outnumber those affected negatively.
A1 (Importance): 2A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3B1 (Permanence): 2B2 (Reversibility): 2B3 (Cumulative): 3 SC2: Effects on agriculture. While water will be less readily available for irrigation in Luthori, we have determined that the Zurmukht’i water contains too many heavy mineral traces and is too high in salinity to be ideal for agricultural purposes anyway. Therefore, the negative impact will be limited. Out of an abundance of caution and to address any possible scarcity issues, we recommend that Luthorian farmers switch to drought-resistant crops, which would completely eliminate the negative impact.
A1 (Importance): 2A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): 0B1 (Permanence): 1B2 (Reversibility): 1B3 (Cumulative): 2 SC3: Effects on drinking water accessibility. We have concerns about the suitability of downstream water for drinking after dam construction. As expressed elsewhere, toxins will likely make the water unsafe to drink. We recommend that the water be treated and made potable before drinking. With proper filtration, the impact should be minimal.
A1 (Importance): 2A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1B1 (Permanence): 3B2 (Reversibility): 1B3 (Cumulative): 2 EO1: Effects on tourism. The dam is expected to significantly boost tourism to Hobrazia, particularly to Muzalkaz. We expect visitors to come simply to witness such a large construction project, and with the right marketing the Zurmkuht’i dam could become a major tourism driver itself. In addition, the Hobrazian Development Corporation plans to build a resort on the resulting reservoir, which would further boost tourism.
A1 (Importance): 2A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3B1 (Permanence): 2B2 (Reversibility): 2B3 (Cumulative): 2 EO2: Effects on the construction trade. The Zurmukht’i dam would be Hobrazia’s largest geoengineering project. Construction would invigorate development industries, requiring massive amounts of raw materials, engineering skill, labor, power, and heavy equipment. Building the dam would effectively be a large stimulus for all construction-related industry in Hobrazia, and industry leaders have enthusiastically endorsed the plan.
A1 (Importance): 3A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3B1 (Permanence): 3B2 (Reversibility): 2B3 (Cumulative): 2 EO3: Effects on the Hobrazian power grid. Once fully operational, the Zurmukht’i dam could provide 4.5TWh of electricity annually, almost a quarter of Hobrazia’s power needs. Hydroelectric power is significantly cheaper and less pollutive than existing coal and oil power plants, and should reduce energy bills and pollution levels across the nation. In fact, the dam’s construction is expected to result in an energy surplus, which Hobrazia could utilize by either expanding the nation’s infrastructure or by selling excess energy to neighboring nations.
A1 (Importance): 4A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3B1 (Permanence): 2B2 (Reversibility): 2B3 (Cumulative): 3Having analyzed a range of 12 different factors covering physical, environmental, and human impacts, we have concluded that the Zurmukht’i dam would be a net benefit for the eco-human environment. With a combined environmental score of +160, the benefits outweigh the costs:
Although we share some concerns with the dam’s detractors, we believe that proper care and management will mitigate most – if not all – concerns.