Zurmukht'i River Dam

[jellybean]

The Zurmukht’i Dam: Marvel or Tragedy?
September 4917

Tonight on Documentary Hobrazia, we examine the proposed Zurmukht’i Dam, which the Hobrazian Development Corporation plans to build in Muzalkaz, just across the border from Luthori. Kote Avaliani, the HDC’s Project Director for the dam, recently reported that the Corporation had filed for a construction permit and has already commissioned the Mts’vane Environmental Group to conduct an environmental impact study. While the proposed dam’s size – it would be Hobrazia’s largest geo-engineering project – requires a lengthy and extensive permitting process, the national government has spoken openly in favor of the project and is expected to be supportive. Minister of the Environment Kathryn Atanshvili has called the dam “promising” and indicated that she would likely recommend that the permit be granted.

Yet despite enthusiasm from the Hobrazian Development Corporation and the government, the dam has attracted considerable controversy, with some saying the dam would threaten environmental and human stability. Tonight we’ll be exploring both the planned dam and the debate around it, empowering you the viewer to decide: would the dam be a marvel – or a tragedy?


Artist’s rendition of the Zurmkukht’i Dam

The Plan
The Zurmukht’i River, Hobrazia’s largest navigable waterway, flows from the Arszan Mountains in Zargundia through Muzalkaz before turning North into Luthori’s Middenriding province and emptying into the Bay of Luthor. Arszan limestone imparts a rich and startlingly deep green color, giving the river its name and establishing it as one of Hobrazia’s national treasures.

The Zurmukht’i Dam, as envisioned by chief architect Narich Shokalovy, would be the country’s largest geo-engineering project. Positioned just across the Luthorian border in Muzalkaz, the dam would stand 270 meters high and generate an estimated 4.5 TWh – almost a quarter of Hobrazia’s national energy needs. In addition, the dam would create tourism opportunities: the resulting reservoir may become a popular spot for recreation, invigorating northern Muzalkaz economically and culturally.


The planned dam site

The dam will be built by the Hobrazian Development Corporation, which oversees most of the country’s public works projects and has dominated the national economy ever since it was created by the Traditionalist Party government. Real estate mogul and HDC executive Kote Avaliani is in charge of bringing the project to fruition. Although the task at hand is massive, Avaliani believes that HDC is “up to the challenge.”

The Road to Completion

First, the Hobrazian Development Corporation must obtain government permission for the dam’s construction. Although several public officials have endorsed the plan, the established legal process calls for extensive environmental and public opinion research. Before getting the green light, Avaliani must demonstrate that the dam will not devastate the environment, that it will enjoy public support, and that HDC is capable of building and operating the structure.
An environmental study is being conducted by Mts’vane Environmental Group (MEG), which hopes to fully explore the ecological ramifications of the dam by 4920. Mts’vane will study the effects the dam’s reservoir would have on Hobrazia, the potential damage – if any – to Luthori’s water supply, and the impact on fish populations. The study will also analyze the probability of dam failure and the possible outcomes of such a catastrophe. MEG was selected by HDC through a sole source contract, which some have criticized as evidence of corruption – Mts’vane is owned by chief environmental engineer Tsut'e Sihazhok, brother-in-law of HDC CEO Albina Zhdokovy. However, the Corporation has defended their choice, saying that Mts’vane is the only Hobrazian company capable of fulfilling the project requirements.

After the environmental study is completed, the government must allow at least 3 years for public comments on the dam. Although the public will not directly vote on the dam’s construction, public opinion will be taken into consideration by the Ministry of the Environment when issuing a decision. Due to the potentially international nature of the dam’s construction, Minister Kathryn Atanshvili has made the unprecedented announcement that comments from foreign citizens, governments, and businesses will also be considered.

Finally, Avaliani will need to demonstrate that the Hobrazian Development Corporation possesses the physical, technical, and financial resources needed to build and maintain the dam. Physical equipment will be the least difficult hurdle, as the Corporation already possesses an extensive collection of heavy construction equipment, and will be able to secure new equipment without too much trouble. Technical knowledge is expected to be provided primarily by Hobrazian engineers, with some consultation from more experienced engineers from Endralon. HDC’s existing relationship with Lourennaise and Lodamese green energy companies is expected to come into play, and the Corporation may seek a larger suite of advisors.
The dam is expected to cost approximately 300 million Hobrazian crowns. Although the Corporation does not have such a sum in reserves, Avaliani has already secured preliminary loan offers from the Hobrazian government, the Bank of Astoria, and the Endralonian banks Open Banking Sectors and Financial Bank of Liberty.



Controversy

Although Hobrazian government and business leaders are supportive of the endeavor, the Zurmukht’i dam does not enjoy universal support. Strict environmentalists, far from being happy about a shift to renewable energy, have criticized the dam for altering the riparian ecosystem in Hobrazia and Luthori. Wildlife Zargundia, the nation’s largest conservation organization, has suggested that the dam could have an “unpredictable” impact on flora and fauna in the region.

Luthorian farmers and environmentalists fear that the dam could impact southern Luthori’s water table. Most obviously, reduced water levels could cause drought or raise agricultural costs. Farmers are also concerned that blocking the flow of sediment from the resource-rich Arszan mountains could impair soil quality, and others point out that dams elsewhere in Terra have led to increased concentrations of mercury and heavy metals.

The human cost of the dam has also attracted criticism. The small Hobrazian village of Roslabna, which lies in the valley designated for the dam, would be displaced by the dam’s reservoir. Although the 200-odd villagers protested the plans, the Hobrazian Development Corporation has responded that the proposed site is the only place suitable for dam construction.

The Luthori-based new religious movement Path to Paradise’s Gates has also raised concerns about the dam on religious grounds. The religion prizes flowing rivers, which are essential to the group’s baptism rituals. Although most followers reside in Luthori, a growing community in Hobrazia – estimated to be 10-20,000 strong – has vigorously protested the dam’s construction.

The most significant source of opposition to the dam lies in the fear that a dam breakage could endanger the lives and property of Luthorians downriver. Avaliani has directly addressed this concern, stating that the dam’s construction would be of such a high quality that failure would be almost an impossibility. Still, many have speculated that a dam failure could cause catastrophic loss of life. Luthorian engineer Marshall Robinson has become a prominent opponent to the dam, claiming that the proposed size would create “significant” risks and that the Hobrazian Development Corporation lacks the experience and skill necessary to maintain the dam. A video by Robinson has circulated widely on Luthori’s social media, stoking fears among the public.

The Path Forward


The Zurmukht’i River

While the Hobrazian Development Corporation promises that the dam will be a symbol of national pride and provide clean energy for millions, opponents believe that the dam creates risks to ecological integrity, agriculture, and human lives. Although reasonable points can be made on both sides, one thing is certain: this project will represent a massive effort to establish Hobrazia as a modern nation capable of significant engineering feats.

[jellybean]

September 4921


The Zurmukht’i river, Hobrazia’s largest navigable river, flows from the Arszan mountains in Zargundia through Muzalkaz before crossing the Hobrazia-Luthori border and discharging in the Bay of Luthor. The river sustains a number of fish species, including plentiful trout and the endangered Hobrazian sturgeon. The Zurmukht’i is a significant source of water for both northern Hobrazia and southern Luthori, providing irrigation for farmers and – once purified – drinking water for many residents. The river also provides a method of waste disposal, although both the Hobrazian and Luthorian governments have attempted to discourage such usage. The river’s bright green color is appealing for many visitors, and in recent times the river has become a popular destination for paddlers and sport fishers.

The Hobrazian Development Corporation proposes building a dam on the Zurmukht’i river in Muzalkaz, near the Luthorian border. The Corporation argues that such a construction would provide clean power, create a desirable reservoir, and have minimal negative impacts. The purpose of this report is to ascertain whether the dam’s negative environmental impacts would outweigh its potential benefits.


We analyzed the expected environmental impacts of the Zurmukht’i dam using a Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix, or RIAM. For clarity, the RIAM method assesses the dam’s potential impacts on the environment by analyzing criteria that fall into two groups:

(A) Criteria that are of importance to the condition, that individually can change the score obtained; and
(B) Criteria that are of value to the situation, but should not individually be capable of changing the score obtained.

Group A criteria are multiplied according to certain ratings, while group B criteria are summed according to certain ratings. The environmental score ES is obtained thusly:

(a1) × (a2) = aT
(b1) + (b2) + (b3) = bT
(aT) × (bT) = ES

A positive ES indicates a more beneficial criterion, while a negative ES indicates a non-beneficial criterion.

Each criterion is scored using the following schedule:

A1 (Importance of condition) – 0: No importance; 1: Important only the local condition; 2: Important to areas immediately outside the local condition; 3: Important to regional/national interests; 4: Important to national/international interests
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): Scale of -3 to +3, with -3 indicating major disbenefit or change; 0 indicating no change/status quo; and +3 indicating major positive benefit.
B1 (Permanence): Scale of 1-3, with 1 indicating no change and 3 indicating permanence.
B2 (Reversibility): Scale of 1 to 3, with 1 indicating no change and 3 indicating irreversibility.
B3 (Cumulative): Measures whether effects will develop a cumulative impact over time or combine with other effects for a larger impact. Scale of 1-3, with 1 indicating no change and 3 indicating cumulative/synergistic.

Criteria were assessed in the following categories:

• Physical/Chemical (PC)
• Biological/Ecological (BE)
• Sociological/Cultural (SC)
• Economic/Operational (EO)

For the Zurmukht’i dam, we analyzed the following impacts:

• PC1: Effects on the downstream water table.
• PC2: Effects on sediments deposited (or not deposited) downstream.
• PC3: Effects on the dam construction site, including the reservoir.
• BE1: Effects on aquatic species inhabiting the Zurmukht’i.
• BE2: Effects on downstream ecosystems that utilize the river.
• BE3: Effects on the Bay of Luthor.
• SC1: Effects on nearby communities.
• SC2: Effects on agriculture.
• SC3: Effects on drinking water accessibility.
• EO1: Effects on tourism.
• EO2: Effects on the construction trade.
• EO3: Effects on the Hobrazian power grid.

(OOC: The RIAM method was developed by Pastakia and Jensen (1998) and is a common method of evaluating environmental impact. Some sentences explaining the methodology have been lifted from Pastakia and Jensen’s paper, which is standard practice in creating a RIAM. I have adapted some of it to fit phpBB formatting. The analysis is original work.)


PC1: Effects on the downstream water table
The dam’s construction will significantly reduce the flow of water downstream, which will lower the water table in southern Middenriding (Luthori). This will reduce erosion in Middenriding soil and enable Luthorians to build more durable infrastructure. We do not expect that the dam’s construction will eliminate groundwater or make existing water completely inaccessible.
A1 (Importance): 2
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1
B1 (Permanence): 3
B2 (Reversibility): 2
B3 (Cumulative): 3

PC2: Effects on sediments deposited (or not deposited) downstream.
Category B
The dam’s construction will impede the flow of sediments from the Arszan mountains to the Bay of Luthor. While this may increase erosion risk, primarily in Luthori, we believe that a lack of sedimentation may be offset by intentionally adding sediment to the Zurmukht’i river downstream of the dam. In addition, we expect sediment to build up behind the dam, and recommend that the Hobrazian Development Corporation plan to address this issue.
A1 (Importance): 2
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1
B1 (Permanence): 2
B2 (Reversibility): 2
B3 (Cumulative): 2

PC3: Effects on the dam construction site, including the reservoir.
The area surrounding the dam will be permanently impacted by construction. The reservoir will fundamentally change the valley, surrounding mountains, and the present ecosystem. Much of the river’s current banks will be transformed into a lake, and the coastline will be moved up significantly. However, any impacts to the dam’s construction site will be highly localized. As discussed elsewhere, the social impacts of the transformation are expected to be positive.
A1 (Importance): 1
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +2
B1 (Permanence): 3
B2 (Reversibility): 3
B3 (Cumulative): 3

BE1: Effects on aquatic species inhabiting the Zurmukht’i.
The Zurmukht’i is home to a number of freshwater fish, aquatic plants, and various amphibians and molluscs. No anadromous or catadromous species are known to inhabit the river. Non-fish species are expected to experience minimum disruption upriver, while effects will be largely minimal downriver. We anticipate relatively few immediate changes to vegetative, amphibious, or mollusk life throughout the river. Effects on fish will likely be more serious: while some species, like trout, will flourish in the newly-created reservoir, more long-ranging species like the Hobrazian sturgeon may diminish. We encourage the government to repopulate alternative rivers with threatened species.
A1 (Importance): 3
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1
B1 (Permanence): 3
B2 (Reversibility): 3
B3 (Cumulative): 3

BE2: Effects on downstream ecosystems that utilize the river.
Downstream ecosystems may be affected by lower water levels, reduced sediment-carried nutrients, and a disrupted riparian ecosystem. However, the river is but one source of nutrition and water for downstream ecosystems: with proper management by Luthorian authorities, minimal disruption can be expected. We do have some concern over the possibility of toxins such as mercury being carried downstream from the dam, and suggest that downstream authorities take appropriate actions to measure and address toxins.
A1 (Importance): 2
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1
B1 (Permanence): 2
B2 (Reversibility): 3
B3 (Cumulative): 3

BE3: Effects on the Bay of Luthor.
The Bay of Luthor is an important international body of water that is fed by the Zurmukht’i river. However, the Zurmukht’i is only one river discharging into the Bay: the Bay is also the terminus for rivers in Luthori, Ikradon, and Kundrati. Given the Bay’s size and the presence of alternative sources of sediment, we anticipate few disruptions. As with downstream river-side ecosystems, we have some level of concern over toxins being carried into the Bay – however, the sheer size of the water body alleviates our concerns.
A1 (Importance): 3
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): 0
B1 (Permanence): 1
B2 (Reversibility): 1
B3 (Cumulative): 1

SC1: Effects on nearby communities.
Nearby communities will experience the dam very differently. The village of Rosblana, which lies just behind the proposed dam site, will have to be relocated for the safety of its residents. Although Rosblana has protested the dam’s construction, the village’s size (approximately 200 Hobrazian citizens reside in the village year-round) is insignificant compared to the dam’s potential benefits. We recommend that the government use eminent domain to purchase Rosblana property at a fair value, and that the Hobrazian Development Corporation reimburse residents for their moving costs.

Some downstream communities have expressed fears that a dam failure could lead to catastrophic flooding, which might destroy farms, villages, and even cities. However, such fears lie mostly outside the scope of an environmental report: the possibility of dam failure is a purely engineering question, and we urge concerned citizens – whether Hobrazian or Luthorian – to contact HDC’s engineering department. Our analysts have been assured that the dam’s engineering will be sturdy enough to preclude the possibility of dam failure, and so we do not consider it a threat.

Other nearby villages and towns will experience diverse benefits from the dam’s construction. Even after construction, dam operation will continue to infuse much-needed cash and provide jobs for local communities. Cheap and clean hydropower will reduce pollution, bring drastically more affordable energy, and empower communities across Hobrazia to utilize more energy-heavy tools and appliances. Tourism will further enrich local communities, and a well-stocked reservoir will provide sport and subsistence fishing. We expect that the people positively affected by the dam will far outnumber those affected negatively.
A1 (Importance): 2
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3
B1 (Permanence): 2
B2 (Reversibility): 2
B3 (Cumulative): 3

SC2: Effects on agriculture.
While water will be less readily available for irrigation in Luthori, we have determined that the Zurmukht’i water contains too many heavy mineral traces and is too high in salinity to be ideal for agricultural purposes anyway. Therefore, the negative impact will be limited. Out of an abundance of caution and to address any possible scarcity issues, we recommend that Luthorian farmers switch to drought-resistant crops, which would completely eliminate the negative impact.
A1 (Importance): 2
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): 0
B1 (Permanence): 1
B2 (Reversibility): 1
B3 (Cumulative): 2

SC3: Effects on drinking water accessibility.
We have concerns about the suitability of downstream water for drinking after dam construction. As expressed elsewhere, toxins will likely make the water unsafe to drink. We recommend that the water be treated and made potable before drinking. With proper filtration, the impact should be minimal.
A1 (Importance): 2
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): -1
B1 (Permanence): 3
B2 (Reversibility): 1
B3 (Cumulative): 2

EO1: Effects on tourism.
The dam is expected to significantly boost tourism to Hobrazia, particularly to Muzalkaz. We expect visitors to come simply to witness such a large construction project, and with the right marketing the Zurmkuht’i dam could become a major tourism driver itself. In addition, the Hobrazian Development Corporation plans to build a resort on the resulting reservoir, which would further boost tourism.
A1 (Importance): 2
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3
B1 (Permanence): 2
B2 (Reversibility): 2
B3 (Cumulative): 2

EO2: Effects on the construction trade.
The Zurmukht’i dam would be Hobrazia’s largest geoengineering project. Construction would invigorate development industries, requiring massive amounts of raw materials, engineering skill, labor, power, and heavy equipment. Building the dam would effectively be a large stimulus for all construction-related industry in Hobrazia, and industry leaders have enthusiastically endorsed the plan.
A1 (Importance): 3
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3
B1 (Permanence): 3
B2 (Reversibility): 2
B3 (Cumulative): 2

EO3: Effects on the Hobrazian power grid.
Once fully operational, the Zurmukht’i dam could provide 4.5TWh of electricity annually, almost a quarter of Hobrazia’s power needs. Hydroelectric power is significantly cheaper and less pollutive than existing coal and oil power plants, and should reduce energy bills and pollution levels across the nation. In fact, the dam’s construction is expected to result in an energy surplus, which Hobrazia could utilize by either expanding the nation’s infrastructure or by selling excess energy to neighboring nations.
A1 (Importance): 4
A2 (Magnitude of change/effect): +3
B1 (Permanence): 2
B2 (Reversibility): 2
B3 (Cumulative): 3




Having analyzed a range of 12 different factors covering physical, environmental, and human impacts, we have concluded that the Zurmukht’i dam would be a net benefit for the eco-human environment. With a combined environmental score of +160, the benefits outweigh the costs:




Although we share some concerns with the dam’s detractors, we believe that proper care and management will mitigate most – if not all – concerns.

[Horrell]

Luthori Environmental Ministry publicly comments on the Dam

Today, in a Joint Press Release with the Middenriding Ministry of Environment, Environmental Minister Janet Bridges announced that the Oplers government would not be opposed to the construction of the dam if Luthori "receives enough benefit to outweigh the environmental damages to the river." Minister Bridges statement went on to confirm that Luthori accepts the Hobrazia report as "completely accurate."

Minister Bridges announced that there 2 conditions that the Oplers government would support the dam. "The dam has great potential to be used as an environmental and humanitarian work of governance" the Minister said after taking questions, "however there will be damages, and we arn't going to accept all the downsides with none of the upsides." The press release stated that they are open to an "a responsibility sharing agreement" and "a program to make sure Middenriding citizens receives benefits of the dam."

The Environmental Ministry worked independently in the publishing of this statement. And the Oplers Government is would like to maintain a working dialogue over the Dam issue with all parties involved.

[jellybean]

Ministry of the Environment issues permit for Zurmukht'i dam construction
August 4927

Minister of the Environment Kathryn Atanashvili has approved construction of the Zurmukht'i dam following a mostly-positive public comment period. After the Mts'vane environmental impact assessment was released, the Ministry of the Environment allowed a period of several years for public stakeholders to issue comments. Notable comments included:

• Almost unanimous support for the dam's construction from trade associations, labor unions, and consumer rights groups. These supporters typically expressed their hope that the dam's construction would be an economic boost for Hobrazia, uplifting the budding construction industry, creating jobs, and bringing low-cost power to all of Hobrazia.
• Strong endorsements from Hobrazian industry leaders, including the Bank of Astoria, Zargundian Resource Group, and the Hobrazian Development Corporation, which issued a joint statement in favor of construction. Hobrazia's economic leaders funded a public relations campaign on behalf of the dam, urging the public to support it in order to "bring a new era of prosperity" to the nation.
• Mixed reactions from environmentalist groups. While some conservationist organizations like the Zargundian Wildlife Confederation opposed the dam on the grounds that it would endanger local fish and animal populations, most environmentalists - both individually and institutionally - praised the initiative to bring clean energy to Hobrazia, and favorably contrasted hydroelectricity with existing staples like coal and oil.
• Conditionally favorable testimony from the government of Luthori. Hobrazian Development Corporation CEO Biró Zsolt responded personally to the Luthorian government, promising that Luthori "would see the benefits of the dam's construction" and that HDC would be more than happy to sell low-cost energy to Middenriding.
• Negative reactions from the village of Rosblana, which will be relocated for dam construction. Atanashvili promised that the Hobrazian government would see to it that Rosblana residents were properly compensated, but that eminent domain would be employed.
• Negative reactions from the Hosian cult Path to Paradise's Gates, which places a high value on rivers. Path community leaders vigorously protested dam construction and are expected to continue to do so. Neither the Hobrazian government nor HDC responded directly to Path concerns.

Over three-quarters of testimony heard on the dam was positive, and public opinion polls show that at least two-thirds of the Hobrazian public "mostly" or "strongly favors" dam construction.

Having already received preliminary financing from the Hobrazian Ministry of Trade & Industry and the Bank of Astoria, along with Endralonian-based banks Open Banking Sectors and Financial Bank of Liberty, the Hobrazian Development Corporation is expected to begin construction immediately. The dam site will be prepared for construction by the end of the year, and actual building should begin by March 4928. The Hobrazian Development Corporation plans to complete construction by the end of 4935.