Keambiroiro & Stand Up Win BigKurageri's political establishment has been shocked by the sudden and unexpected victory of the populist, nationalist Stand Up party (Kuragao: Simama; stylised "Simama!"). The party has won a near-majority in the legislature and its leader, the ultranationalist MP Ashon Keambiroiro, has defeated the incumbent President Afiya Andaiye despite polls showing her consistently ahead in head-to-heads. It had been thought that Simama would only make very modest gains, especially considering the alternative vote system has generally favoured moderate parties in the past. This was clearly not the case by 11pm on election night, as booth after booth came in for Simama.
The reasons for Keambiroiro's success is likely due to two factors: centre-right voters where much more willing to lend their second preferences to Simama than was previously expected; turnout was up dramatically in poorer and rural parts of the nation. Outside of the relatively prosperous capital of Kuga and other modernised, coastal cities, the majority of Kurageri remains underdeveloped. These working class voters were expected to stay at home, as they historically have done, but instead turnout rose from 57% to a record 76%. Most of these voters seem to have broken for Simama, and they have also supported the party's leader's presidential bid.
The ParliamentSimama had been expected to make gains in the northern, mountainous state of Atangwa. In fact, they won 63% of the vote in the two-party preferred vote against the Reform Party - taking 17 of 20 seats with them. In Borata, they won 59% of the two-party preferred vote and took 16 of 24 seats. The centre-right candidates and the liberal ones completely collapsed as Simama washed the map in blue, cannibalising their potential coalition allies. The raw vote tallies remained consistent for all parties besides Stand Up, who benefited immensely from the turnout surge.
The south, where Simama had previously found its most strength, did not see comparable turnout surges - though turnout still increased a fair bit and Simama took 52% of the TPP-vote in Ingoiro and 27 of 44 seats. The party consistently received support in the rest of the rural land, with a reliable base of agricultural workers turning out to support the populist policies of Stand Up and their leader. Their advance was hampered in the metropolitan regions like the capital Kuga, where the Reform Party increased its vote tally and hung on percentage-wise. Only half a dozen of the 34 Kuga metropolitan seats will be held by Simama. Simama will likely form a legislative alliance with the centre-right CKK to hold power.
The PresidencyEven more shocking than the legislative results were the presidential ones. Mr Keambiroiro had been looked upon by metropolitan people as a 'clown' and a 'buffoon'. They had expected him to fall apart in the first round, even as polls showed him increase his support over time. Combined with the unexpected surge of rural turnout, President Andaiye was unable to make up the margin between her and Mr Keambiroiro even as she ran up huge margins in Kuga's inner metropolis. She won over 70% of the vote in central Kuga, but lost by comparable margins throughout the entire north - with only the occasional speck of green on the coasts.
Her defeat in the second round, with a result of 56.0% to 44.0%, has damaged hopes of political equity for women in Kurageri. Mrs Andaiye was seen as a sign of change in a male-dominated political culture and was expected to win by a margin of around 10 points. Instead, she will be replaced by a man who has made repeated disparaging comments about women; her political party in the legislature losing 18 female members, and her opponent's bringing in only 9 new ones out of 75 gains they made. Mrs Andaiye made a gracious concession speech, but said her days in politics were not over yet - leading to speculation she may run for her old job of Kuga City Mayor.
The Kuga Elephant is a privately-run, left-leaning newspaper based in the Kurageri capital of Kuga.