Statisticians anyone?

[MapleUnity]

Hey everybody! Not sure who else loves excel and stats and fun stuff like that, but I've been doing a little project on the side to see how Particracy information and stats (population, opinions, work percentage, broken budgets etc) could be configured to determine new cool interesting stats (like unemployment, crime rate, etc).

So I first worked on unemployment and workforce statistics. I grabbed the easy data: population for a region, % in working age, and % employed. For Likatonia's Meria we get:

19,965,522 pop * 62.12% work age * 91.87% employed = 11,394,252 employed

Which is great, but the problem with this strategy is that these numbers can't change. No matter what you do to the people of Likatonia, that will stay constant. So I decided to incorporate my own numbers into the equation from the budget (simply because the budget was easier to mine data from than opinions). I took the corporate tax income and divided it from total revenue to create a simulated burden on corporations, and then reversed it to a percentage (what I named the job creation rate).

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Job creation rate = 1 - (total national corporation tax income / total national revenue)

Meria Job creation rate = 1 - (0 LIK / 113,420,225,662 LIK) = 100% job creation rate

This led to the realization that there were still no negative effects on moving corporate tax rates way down and just increasing income tax rates to unbearable levels. Therefore the Participation Rate was developed as a similar function but for total income tax revenue. However, some states have no corporate tax or other revenue, and in which case I used consumption as the comparison for the income tax (as I did with Likatonia). It is meant to reflect the burden on individual's economic status from the state:

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Participation rate = 1 - (total national income tax revenue / total national revenue OR national consumption)

Meria Participation rate = 1 - (113,420,225,662 LIK / 611,719,770,006 LIK) = 81.46% participation rate

And between the two of these new statistics, I implemented a new measuring system. The Job creation method is used against the labour market to determine how many jobs there is the potential to have in the region, while the Participation rate is meant to determine how many of those jobs have applicants. The employment rate is then applied to determine how many of those applied get hired. So in practice:

19,965,522 pop * 62.12% work age = 12,402,582 in Labour Market * 100% job creation rate = 12,402,582 jobs * 81.46% participation rate * 91.87% hiring rate = 9,281,620 employed

The problem I'm having is that means that for Meria in Likatonia, there are 3,120,962 unemployed from the labour market or in other words a 25.16% unemployment rate. Of course thats a little high, but it could also just demonstrate that having no corporate tax and all income tax is hard on the market. Anybody else interested in this stuff?

[Doc]

"Job creation rate = 1 - (total national corporation tax income / total national revenue)"

This is based on the assumption that a higher corporate income tax rate will lead to lower job creation. But this is not a safe assumption. From the real world we can surmise that if you mess with corporate tax rates, the corporation only claims that this will lead to lower job creation, but what it may mean is a) either offshoring the profits (see Apple and Burger King) to a lower tax place, and/or 2) passing the cost to consumers. Corporate taxes never affect the profit margin of the company unless the company is operating so close to the margin in a static demand scenario, and only then does it affect their willingness to fire workers. Furthermore, I am not sure how total national corporate rate divided by total national income equals a job creation rate. Total National income, as you likely know is corporate tax plus sales tax plus income tax. Here you have national revenue as a percentage of corporate tax. That figure doesn't make any sense. And 0 divided by any number is 0. So by this math, a zero percent corporate tax rate should lead to 100 % job creation rate, but logically, we know that a zero percent corporate tax does not equal 10% employment. The model simply does not accurately describe reality in any stretch of the imagination. Nor does a 9% corporate tax rate yield an 96.6 Job creation rate employment rate, nor does a 50% corporate tax rate equal an 82% Job creation rate. The corporate tax only messes with hiring in theory, and then only for the corporations who can't afford to pass the costs on to their consumers, usually because they are operating in a specialty market or in a commodity market with a fixed demand for goods.

"Of course thats a little high, but it could also just demonstrate that having no corporate tax and all income tax is hard on the market."

Then of course, if you have a 25% unemployment rate, you are collecting zero LIK from those people. I think paying income tax is hardwired into the code of the game, whether they have a virtual job or not. It seems to me that you gain far less income tax from folks if you have one tax bracket than if you have 99 million tax brackets, to take into account the income profile of the entire country. And I think that income profile is set for each country. You may notice that there are not fabulously wealthy countries and dramatically poor countries. Difference between the countries in this "income profile" are actually used to set currency rates...

I think that some of the assumptions behind the calculations are a bit stretched. This may be why you are having difficulty with making your numbers match your expectations. But a pure income tax and a low corporate tax doesn't mean unemployment. think of it instead as a continuum of flat tax vs progressive tax- a flat tax leads to high inequality, while progressive taxes smooth that out. But corporate tax and sales tax are always passed to a consumer, so a low corporate tax and low sales tax lead to more money in the hands of consumers but also lower social spending to help the poor.

[Doc]

Plus: http://classic.particracy.net/ranking.php?limit=100000&topic=regionsbyunemployment
Unemployment by region.

Here are Kalistan's stats, by region:
9.98- Ananto
8.58- Vrassa
6.81- Odufaray
5.78- Suldanor
3.70- Neveras

For an Average Republican Unemployment rate of 6.97.

And for Likatonia:
Meria- 8.13
Gokitan- 3.88
Sorbanika- 8.72
Lukaron- 2.73
Hukatai- 7.42

Or and average rate of 6.176 percent

I think these don't change. And I would be bet that most countries would be right around there. The economics model, as I have discovered on a different project, is really not functional, and we are left with RPing agreements on things like this.