Hrafn wrote:Is there a significant risk that this will escalate into an all-out civil war?
If I have to be honest, I don't think so. And I hope I'm right.
The full force of the central Government is huge, and there is an article in the Spanish Constitution (the famous Art. 155) that is able to "suspend the autonomy of a region in rebellion", effectively taking over Catalonia’s government powers to the central Government.
However using the military in such circumstances is way too far. Doing so would remember the Spaniards the actions of the Franco dictatorship that ended just 40 years ago, and would decrease even more the support for the national government in all Spain. Also, many people here believe that one of the reasons we have ended in this situation is because the obstinacy of Mariano Rajoy and Carles Puigdemont.
Also, the left can call for a motion of no-confidence against the current Government if the situation keeps rising (the left has always promised better relationships and new statuses to all Spanish communities), with the votes in favour of the PSOE (85 seats), Podemos (71), and probably the nationalists parties: ERC (9), CDC (8) and PNV (5), with a total of 178 out of 350, enough to replace the current Government. Of course this is unlikely right now and was unlikely when we had the elections, but if the situation rises, it will be probably talked about.
On the other side, the Catalan region has no army (same with the rest of regions) apart from the civil police, Mossos d'Esquadra, and the military is totally loyal to the central Government and the Chief of State, the King, who also commands the Armed Forces. A problem is also that the Catalan Government is substained by the CUP, which pushes its Government to keep going forward ignoring any advices.
Riots, protests, general strikes? Yes, we are already having them and tomorrow there will be a big one. The Catalan Government has also announced a unilateral declaration of independence in two days, with the opposition of the Mayor of Barcelona. After that, we will see what happens... But I don't think a civil war is on the table.