British Politics and Scottish Independence

[OneTime]

Labour Party: 98
Corbyn Labour Party: 87

'Corbyn Labour Party' is the Labour Party. If neo-liberal Blairites split, it would be them leaving the Labour Party and forming some SDP-esque centrist ideologically-bare farce, not the socialists.

And people here are still grossly underestimating Corbyn and Labour. The Tory vote will go down significantly over the next 5 years when the living standards for the poor and working-class will inevitably collapse.

The singe biggest challenge the Labour Party face, other than Scotland, is overcoming the daily negative headlines about Corbyn for the next five years. Every single day, all the right-wing newspapers, of which most papers belong to, will incessantly attack Corbyn for anything they can whip up and lie about. That national anthem story (editorial: good on him. Fuck the monarchy) was posted in the Sun literally about two days after he was criticised for being a hypocrite for swearing allegiance to the Queen. Everything in the papers over the next five years will be utter shit, or at least very, very heavily spun. Read everything with extreme vigilance.

This.100% agreed.The neo-liberal policies of the conservatives will destroy whatever standards of living the working class and poor have left, and the nostalgia for re-1980's Labour will resurge, leading to a rise in the Labour vote, and possibly a Labour government (a non neo-liberal appeasing one)
EDIT: Oh by the way, Labour won't actually split. I can say that with some confidence.

This.100% agreed.The neo-liberal policies of the conservatives will destroy whatever standards of living the working class and poor have left, and the nostalgia for re-1980's Labour will resurge, leading to a rise in the Labour vote, which will be fully unified behin Corbyn, and possibly a Labour government (a non neo-liberal appeasing one)

[PaleRider]

And people here are still grossly underestimating Corbyn and Labour. The Tory vote will go down significantly over the next 5 years when the living standards for the poor and working-class will inevitably collapse.

You are making an awful big gamble on outside events.

On a side note, the Govt came out with the 2015 SDSR. I read through it and was thoroughly impressed.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... eview-2015

Thoughts from the peanut gallery?

[MichaelReilly]

And people here are still grossly underestimating Corbyn and Labour. The Tory vote will go down significantly over the next 5 years when the living standards for the poor and working-class will inevitably collapse.

You are making an awful big gamble on outside events.

Yeahhh, I didn't quite predict this whole bombing Syria scenario arising again...

Corbyn is right; I agree with him, but it's seriously screwing the party up, and the warmongering British public don't like that one bit.

[Choice Party]

The next election IMO is too far away to be able to predict very well whatsoever. The only things as of now I can confidently predict is that the EU referendum will change things for the Lib Dems and UKIP. Tim Farron's also not displayed signs of prime ministerial qualities, I highly doubt that he'll get anywhere near the amount of seats Clegg did in 2010. UKIP I can see either falling into complete irrelevance or if we don't leave the EU, they could have a sort of SNP effect and distain with the result could lead to more UKIP support.

Things between the Conservatives and Labour are too unpredictable to call right now. I see the Green Party taking a major hit due to Corbyn, but I can see them keeping their seat they have now. That said I can see Corbyn not making it to 2020, so that too is still too difficult to call. As for the SNP, they're far too unpredictable too.

[J4C0B65]

The next election IMO is too far away to be able to predict very well whatsoever. The only things as of now I can confidently predict is that the EU referendum will change things for the Lib Dems and UKIP. Tim Farron's also not displayed signs of prime ministerial qualities, I highly doubt that he'll get anywhere near the amount of seats Clegg did in 2010. UKIP I can see either falling into complete irrelevance or if we don't leave the EU, they could have a sort of SNP effect and distain with the result could lead to more UKIP support.

Things between the Conservatives and Labour are too unpredictable to call right now. I see the Green Party taking a major hit due to Corbyn, but I can see them keeping their seat they have now. That said I can see Corbyn not making it to 2020, so that too is still too difficult to call. As for the SNP, they're far too unpredictable too.

Labour have gotten into to a big mess and if they keep going like they are at the moment, they won't stand any chance of winning in 2020. I agree that whatever happens with the EU Referendum will almost certainly influence borderline voters, just not sure which ones.

[SelucianCrusader]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the European parliament if there's a Brexit. The Tories are currently allied to a lot of more hardline parties in the ECR group, including UKIP's Islam-critical former sister party in Denmark. I could imagine the ECR and the EFDD coming together (with the exception of the clowns from M5S) and forming a big traditionalist conservative block together with the more and more eurosceptic big conservative parties in countries like Hungary, Poland, Croatia, maybe Italy as well.

[MichaelReilly]

'SNP's Nicola Sturgeon announces new independence referendum bill'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37634338

The SNP want independence. Again.

Pope still a Catholic, bear shits in woods, etc. etc...

[MichaelReilly]

IndyRef 2 announced

[MarkWill]

That generation went by quickly.

[Hrafn]

Funny how the same people who wailed about the EU violating the UK's independence are insisting that Scotland must stay in the UK.