British Politics and Scottish Independence

[CanadianEh]

Can I just state I am over the moon about Corbyn's election? I am seriously delighted at the prospect of a Labour Party I may be able to, for the first time in my life, actually respect and give my support to. It may be too early to say for certain, but I can feel myself voting Labour for the first time ever. Corbyn, the socialist leader of a socialist Labour Party? I'm scared to speak too soon because it almost sounds too good to be true.

The Labour Party is in my blood; ever since my ancestors dragged their wretched, impoverished and famished souls onto this island my family have been Labour. And yet, with the drift towards the centre, they slowly fell out of love with the party. Their support for the Gulf War was bad. New Labour and Clause IV were worse. However it was Iraq that resulted in the bitterest feelings. Disgust, betrayal, hatred maybe? Regardless, Blair was poison, and as long as he was the leader of the party, and New Labour pursued a vicious neoliberal economic strategy, Labour could never again be supported.

Now Corbyn has come along, he has changed ideas. A true labour party again? I hope so, I really do. Sorry for this rather incoherent and rambling post but the election of Corbyn has had me in a good mood over the last few days. Cautious, but good nonetheless.

But didn't Blair, and his New Labour ideology win three of the largest Labour victories in the history of the party while the drift leftward under Brown, Milliaband and now Corbyn, won't that make them even more unelectable, thereby keeping the Conservatives in power?

Yes, that's how a sensible, rational person would view the issue.

[Aquinas]

On a sidenote, my old Dranish friends may have noticed that I used to use pictures of Jeremy Corbyn to represent my character Caron Rhydderch, who was a leader of the Dranish Conservative Party. Nobody would have recognised him or knew who he was back then!

[EEL Mk2]

New Labour turned out to be Tory-lite soundbites and utter hogwash which, in the end, everyone ended-up hating.

At least it worked for well over a decade. The same cannot be said of Miliband, who obviously was somewhat to the left of New Labour, so presumably it wouldn't be said of Corbyn either, who is even further to the left.

The Labour Party... can't perform worse than it did under Miliband.

What makes you say that? There is no evidence that Labour has reached any kind of floor. They've done worse before (in 1983 against Michael Foot - at a time where socialism was still viewed as electorally credible).

And the thing a lot of right-wing people (and the media) are ignoring... is how Jeremy Corbyn is actually inspiring people, especially young people.

The problem is, which people? If Corbyn scooped up every single voter who voted for a party to the left of the Labour Party (under Miliband's leadership, that is), he would still lose the next election. The people that Labour really needs to be targeting are swing voters, and they're not the sort who would be inspired by Corbyn's policy prescriptions. As for the possibility of a turnout effect, you might note that turnout was higher in 1992 (with two fairly insipid leaders so far as being inspiring is concerned) than in 1997 (when Blair could still be described as inspiring).

I expect increasing support for social movements in Europe such as Corbyn's Labour and Podemos, for example.

Except that Syriza has enjoyed the benefit of a far worse economic situation than Britain (which is actually performing significantly better than most European nations) and can therefore appeal to a far more disaffected electorate, and that the polls for the election on 20 September shows them in a dead heat with the dreaded New Democracy (i.e. they can't even convincingly beat the 'nasty party'). As for Podemos, they're third in the polls, some ten points behind the governing Popular Party (i.e. the Spanish version of the 'nasty party) despite the almost-as-bad-as-Greece economic conditions in Spain.

The same can't be said for the Tories who have resorted to extreme scaremongering and terrible insults.

Well, I think that to say that Corbyn's economic policies are sub-optimal is a view shared by many credible economists and is therefore a legitimate difference of opinion, not an 'insult' or 'scaremongering'. And most people would view his foreign policy views as being somewhat suspect. I mean, he is on record referring to Hamas and Hezbollah as "friends", for example; it's not some Tory concoction. And in any case, even if it was all Tory lies, it'd probably work - especially if the media, as you accuse them of doing, plays along. After all, no-one ever called politics a truth-telling competition.

[J4C0B65]

My predictions for the 2020 Elections

Conservative: 350
Labour: 110
Liberal Democrats: 160
SNP: 30

[RickCole12]

My predictions for the 2020 Elections

Conservative: 350
Labour: 110
Liberal Democrats: 160
SNP: 30

Probably very unlikely result. I can't see Tim Farron (Lib Dem leader) taking the party from 8 seats to 160 in 5 years. I can see him increasing his parties seat share, but I can't see such an great result like that.

The SNP are going to hold onto the seats they currently have, maybe lose 1 or 2 seats. But they're not going to lose support by that much.

I'd like to see UKIP get a few seats, I'd expect 5 seats at most. Green will continue to hold their 1 seat, maybe make 1 gain.

The Irish parties are going to vary, and since I'm not too familiar with Irish politics, I won't make a prediction on the changes there.

For Labour. I expect the party to split into a Corbyn Labour party and a Pre-Corbyn Labour party. With the way Corbyn is leading the Labour party, a lot of the Labour supporters have gone against the party. Many firm Labour supporters have questioned their own support for the party. And with Tory ministers financing Anti-Corbyn "propaganda" (although not proven, it's something I'd expect).

These'll lead to the Labour party to split into 2 parties. Which'll ultimately lead to the Tory party having the upper hand for the next few elections. As the 2 parties try to remake themselves into the image the people want, and the people trying to decide which Labour is right for them. The Labour parties will ultimately be split in policy, ability and votes for a while, on both sides. This'll lead to the Tory party (as mentioned before) being able to gain a further foothold over the political structure and maybe take more seats than they did before.

Whether you support the Tory's or not, the way the British politics is going, it may lead to a Tory vs SNP system.

My Seats Prediction:
Conservative Party: 370
Labour Party: 98
Corbyn Labour Party: 87
Scottish National Party: 55
Liberal Democrats: 18
Irish Parties: 18
UKIP: 2
Greens: 2

[Turdidae]

I haven't been following UK politics lately.

Is it still chaotic since Corbyn got elected, or has it settled down a bit?

[J4C0B65]

I haven't been following UK politics lately.

Is it still chaotic since Corbyn got elected, or has it settled down a bit?

Well, it's quietened down a bit, but every now and then, things pop up and then die.

[RickCole12]

I haven't been following UK politics lately.

Is it still chaotic since Corbyn got elected, or has it settled down a bit?

Something pop ups every now and then that attacks Corbyns reputation. It's normally his Republican mindset (in Britain that means anti-Monarchy)

First few weeks he got shitted on for not singing the national anthem during a World War event.

Then he got questioned on whether he'd join the Privy Council, which would require him to bow before the Queen.

But it's not chaotic as you may find it. It's British politics, so when we say crisis, we mean "there is a spat going on that'll take a week to sort out, stay tuned for more!"

[soysauce]

2020 really depends on Corbyn's performance, he's certainly facing a few challenges but a respectable result in 2020 isn't beyond him. If he pulls through he might be able to expect to claw back some of the labour voters lost to Ukip at the last election, though that will strain ties with the parliamentary party and indeed the odious bureaucracy that seems impossible to shift in the party. What may hold him back at this though is his reluctance to support any form of nationalism or patriotism, which will alienate Ukip voters and probably offend Scottish voters who tend to look to Hollyrood first before Westminster. It's a tough challenge but if he adapts then he could just about manage it, which could have interesting results. At present though I don't think a party split is likely, it would be easier to depose Corbyn.

[MichaelReilly]

Labour Party: 98
Corbyn Labour Party: 87

'Corbyn Labour Party' is the Labour Party. If neo-liberal Blairites split, it would be them leaving the Labour Party and forming some SDP-esque centrist ideologically-bare farce, not the socialists.

And people here are still grossly underestimating Corbyn and Labour. The Tory vote will go down significantly over the next 5 years when the living standards for the poor and working-class will inevitably collapse.

The singe biggest challenge the Labour Party face, other than Scotland, is overcoming the daily negative headlines about Corbyn for the next five years. Every single day, all the right-wing newspapers, of which most papers belong to, will incessantly attack Corbyn for anything they can whip up and lie about. That national anthem story (editorial: good on him. Fuck the monarchy) was posted in the Sun literally about two days after he was criticised for being a hypocrite for swearing allegiance to the Queen. Everything in the papers over the next five years will be utter shit, or at least very, very heavily spun. Read everything with extreme vigilance.

EDIT: Oh by the way, Labour won't actually split. I can say that with some confidence.