Particracy Forum

I would like to know anyone and everyone's opinion on the next Canadian election, even if you are not from Canada or you are not aware of Canadian politics here is some info on our last election,
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian ... tion,_2011

And our next election,
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Can ... l_election

I made this page to discuss this next election and who you predict will do the best and how the results will look, or even f you just wish to relate Canadian politics to your own country, (it is much like, British, Australian & New Zealand politics)

Personally my view is that there will most likely be a Liberal minority government after the election (a Liberal majority seems a little ambitious). That said, there is a small chance of a Conservative minority government (there is almost no chance of a Conservative majority), or of a Liberal-New Democrat coalition if the Liberals don't have the numbers to form government (minority or majority) on their own (I know that they've both disavowed the possibility of co-operation, but politicians are not, as we know, the most trustworthy people). Whoever forms government, however, it's almost certain, in my view, that the Liberals will increase their seat share substantially while the Conservatives and NDP will lose seats.

As for my preferences, if I were Canadian I would grit my teeth and reluctantly vote for Harper. While Harper's economic policies have generally been sound, I fear that he has a disturbing authoritarian streak (as evidenced by the way he handled a possible motion of no confidence in 2008 by shutting down Parliament, among other things), and is a tad too conservative for me. However, I'm not entirely sure that the Liberals are a superior option: Trudeau's inexperience does not augur well. (Here in Australia, the last two governments led by a Prime Minister without previous ministerial experience - the Whitlam and Rudd governments - were train wrecks.) And the NDP is much too left-wing.

EEL123 wrote:Personally my view is that there will most likely be a Liberal minority government

I see that a Liberal Minority government could definitely be possible seeing that they are led by the young inexperienced Trudeau, the only reason why he is so popular is because is father was a famous Canadian politician and was Prime Minister through the 60's and the 70's he was Liberal just like his son.

EEL123 wrote:there is a small chance of a Conservative minority government

I think that there is a chance for this to happen, the Conservatives will most likely hold off the west, the Liberals will win Quebec, and it will be 50/50 in Ontario. If this happens the a Conservatives could keep receive a minority if the New Democrats don't loose to much (I project they will loose about 50-60 seats) but if they loose 50-40 the conservatives will most likely pull off a minority.

EEL123 wrote:if I were Canadian I would grit my teeth and reluctantly vote for Harper

Yes same with me if there were a better option I would not vote Harper, but there really isn't i don't not think Trudeau can handle being Prime Minister and the NDP are too left for me as well (and are too left for most of Canada), they have moved closer to the centre in closer years agreeing to some privatization of the economy, and no to the legalization of drugs. This is the first time the NDP have been in the opposition spot, since the creation of the party in the 60's.

EEL123 wrote:or of a Liberal-New Democrat coalition if the Liberals don't have the numbers to form government (minority or majority)

In my opinion a coalition will not happen in Canada on a federal level, unlike British & Australian politics where coalitions are not an unusual sight in Canada they are much more rare. There has never been a coalition on the Federal level and the provincial one I have heard of was a Liberal-Democrat coalition in the early 2000's to end conservative reign. I bet there have to be more provincial ones but too many more, in Canada politicians are very stubborn and believe their party is above all parties. I personally don't see a coalition happening.

EEL123 wrote:(Here in Australia, the last two governments led by a Prime Minister without previous ministerial experience - the Whitlam and Rudd governments - were train wrecks.) And the NDP is much too left-wing.

Yes that is why I do not want Trudeau in because someone with no political experience will end up trashing the whole term and put the country into a downward spiral. You current government is a Liberal-National coalition right?

I see a conservative or Liberal minority the conservatives and the NDP will definitely loose seats and I'm just going to go on the topic of the greens, I think they will gain a few seats.

Ah yes, it is almost that time of year in Canada isn't it now? Personally, I want to see the Conservatives get re-elected to a majority government but I have been out of the loop a while. Last time i took the pulse of Canadian politics there was some Senate finances scandal or something with the Conservatives and that brought their poll numbers down. The Liberals look good under Trudeau and can recover lost ground while the NDP seems dead in the water poll wise.
I will say however that Prime Minister Harper is not a man to be underestimated or taken lightly. I suspect the 2015 campaign will be a near run thing barring a major set back for any party.

CanadianEh wrote:the Conservatives will most likely hold off the west

Indeed. I don't think that the West has much of a liking for the Trudeau brand after what Trudeau Snr. did to them.

CanadianEh wrote:if the New Democrats don't loose to much (I project they will loose about 50-60 seats) but if they loose 50-40 the conservatives will most likely pull off a minority.

If you look at the projections from the various prognosticators, it seems to be anyone's guess. There are estimates ranging from a fifty-seat loss to a twenty-seat loss. That said, the last time they surged immediately before the election, so they could well out-perform any prediction made now.

CanadianEh wrote:In my opinion a coalition will not happen in Canada on a federal level, unlike British & Australian politics where coalitions are not an unusual sight in Canada they are much more rare.

I'm aware that coalitions don't happen in Canada, but if the Tories drop, say, fifty or so seats and the NPD comes out relatively unscathed, the Tories will win the most seats, but 110-120 seats is not enough to form a viable government (I believe that Harper's government between 2006 and 2008 was already the smallest ever Canadian government in terms of seat share, and I'm not sure that he'll be able to survive on much less than what he had then). And hence there may be circumstances which force the creation of a coalition government, especially if the Liberals are close behind the Tories.

As a side note on British and Australian politics, coalitions in Britain are not as common as you seem to think. Apart from the current government, the last time there was a coalition was during the Second World War. And as for Australia, the Liberal (i.e. conservative; it confuses a lot of foreigners) and National Parties are so closely bound together that they're one party in every meaningful sense. So much so that they're referred to collectively as just "the Coalition" without further qualification. They've been in coalition since the 1940s even when they're in opposition.

From a Caribbean Socialist perspective, I will support Justin Trudeau. I read about the relationship between his dad and Fidel Castro in an interview of Castro by Ignacio Ramonet.

Siggon Kristov wrote:From a Caribbean Socialist perspective, I will support Justin Trudeau. I read about the relationship between his dad and Fidel Castro in an interview of Castro by Ignacio Ramonet.

While if that your perspective, Caribbean Socialist I think that would be best as the Liberal party have completely strayed from their original platforms and routes laid back in the late 19th century, of being fiscally right and economically responsible, while being socially permissive. Now they are, fiscally left and big spenders while still remaining permissive. (They may claim they are not but records show they are)

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/09/11 ... edentials/

So what do you think of this? Will Trudeau's position be eroded by being clubbed on the head by both the left and the right? Or will negativity on the part of the NDP do little better than the same from the Tories?

EEL123 wrote:http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/09/11/pm-not-an-entry-level-job-ndp-joins-conservatives-in-attacking-justin-trudeaus-credentials/

So what do you think of this? Will Trudeau's position be eroded by being clubbed on the head by both the left and the right? Or will negativity on the part of the NDP do little better than the same from the Tories?

Well we can kiss a NDP-Liberal coalition goodbye!
If the NDP are now attacking the Liberals it is because it is there strategy it is not just a coincidence that the NDP came out with this stance a day after their 2 day strategy meaning.

Let's also keep in mind that the House of Commons is adding on 30 seats, in provinces like Ontario, Quebec, Alberta & BC provinces parties need focus on.

CanadianEh wrote:Well we can kiss a NDP-Liberal coalition goodbye!

Indeed. Now Harper only needs to come first.