Is China really rising?

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Is China really rising?

Postby PaleRider » Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:27 am

Recently the Chinese economy has been hammered by a severe stock market downturn (http://www.economist.com/news/business- ... ble-market) which threatens to expose more glaring inconsistencies in its economy. And perhaps more troubling, the government is rushing through a series of new national security laws which are designed to tighten the grip of the state (and party) over the country (http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/02/opinions/ ... -bequelin/).
Now to me the latter is much more revealing than the former. Why would the government, supposedly prosperous, and secure need sweeping new powers in order to maintain its power and influence in the country? When a state has to resort to such measures of coercion that usually means it is scared and/or fearful of losing its grip on power. And regarding the former, there is still a lot of questions inside the Chinese economy as the government no doubt fiddles with the numbers to reach its own desirable ends.

So, are we looking at simply growing pains for China or are looking at a serious stumbling block they might not be able to overcome?


For further reading:
http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/tai ... e-1.356373\
http://news.yahoo.com/japan-joins-us-au ... 11716.html


ON a side note, what nations/powers/coalitions do you see rising in the future? Will the US continue to be the dominant superpower? Will the EU get its act together and become a superpower? Will we see a resurgent Russia make a power play? What about a Russian-Chinese alliance?
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby CanadianEh » Tue Jul 07, 2015 4:22 pm

The U.S. isn't going to be a world super power for much longer if they don't get their debt crisis solved. Their debt to GDP ratio compared to China is much larger, the U.S. has Trillions of debt while China only has Billions.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby Liu Che/Zhuli » Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:36 pm

The Chinese economic bubble will burst. It is a matter of time and the government knows this. They have, since 2013, been trying to create a soft landing.

Premier Li Keqiang, a member of the Chinese Communist Youth Faction, is seen as being far more capitalist minded than President Xi Jinping. Premier Li's reforms should be seen as positive with respect to the free market.

China is rising and will continue to do so until their bubble bursts. It is in their blood as a nation. The country that was the top dog for 18 out of the last 20 centuries will not just sit around forever.

The Chinese example just goes to show how powers rise and fall and rise and fall. No one nation will remain in total power forever. Those who believe that have clearly not read history or are deluded by their own personal desire for power and significance in society.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby J4C0B65 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:39 pm

Is China not trying to slow down economic growth?
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby PaleRider » Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:49 am

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la ... story.html
http://hill.cm/MnYAjYN

The China situation is becoming worse and worse by the day it seems. Now it seems the internal politics of China are changing or already have changed. Personally, I feel we should be worried about increasingly rising levels of xenophobia and nationalism as the Communist Party to distract from the vast challenges the PRC faces, and how many of those problems have been caused by the negligence of the Party itself.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby CanadianEh » Wed Sep 16, 2015 3:07 am

Well, if China's market continues to decline I think there will be a new world super-power that emerges, the middle eastern nations. Their governments, just like China's are very flexible and most are not Democracies, meaning laws and legislation gets passed rather quickly. I think what could really initiate this is if Saudi Arabia lets ISIS taje over all of Iraq and Syria and then emasses a coalition of middle eastern nations to go in, defeat ISIS in one blow and establish puppet states in the region.

Let's get one thing straight, the U.S.'s time with power is over and I find it rather humorous that many Americans are actually fighting tooth and nail to re-establish their top dog position. It's a waist of time, America should start worrying about it's own citizens for once rather than getting itself into the business of other countries.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby PaleRider » Wed Sep 16, 2015 4:01 am

CanadianEh wrote:Well, if China's market continues to decline I think there will be a new world super-power that emerges, the middle eastern nations. Their governments, just like China's are very flexible and most are not Democracies, meaning laws and legislation gets passed rather quickly. I think what could really initiate this is if Saudi Arabia lets ISIS taje over all of Iraq and Syria and then emasses a coalition of middle eastern nations to go in, defeat ISIS in one blow and establish puppet states in the region.

Let's get one thing straight, the U.S.'s time with power is over and I find it rather humorous that many Americans are actually fighting tooth and nail to re-establish their top dog position. It's a waist of time, America should start worrying about it's own citizens for once rather than getting itself into the business of other countries.

I would heartily disagree with you. None of the proposed power competitors are even close to matching America's power and projection of power and while the rise of Saudi Arabia as the leader of a pan-Arab/Islamic coalition of states might seem logical and even feasible, it's something they've been trying for decades now with little to no success. The Middle East hasn't had a power organically rise from itself since the original Caliphate post-Muhammed burst onto the scene over 1400 years ago. The best competitors for Muslim power are Iran, Turkey, and Egypt. Egypt is beset with internal difficulties so they are out of the running. Turkey too is beset by internal rumblings, and flailing campaign against ISIL, Syria, and their Kurdish minority so they're out of the picture and Iran has long standing ethnic, and religious tension with the residents of the Arabian peninsula dating back centuries. Iran would be hard pressed to push its power and influence past Baghdad.
In addition, the five traditional centres of Islamic power (Cairo, Damascus, Baghdad, Istanbul, and Tehran) are all in some degree of turmoil, or internal preoccupation preventing the rise of a truly pan-national Islamic power. The best candidates right now are Iran and Turkey, with Iran severely limited by it's ethnic history (Persians and Arabs dont get along so well) while there is the all important Sunni-Shia divide.

Now moving onto to your assertion that the US is no longer the world superpower in an American dominated unipolar world, I would agree, IN PART. The period from 1991-2003 was really the American unipolar world. China was still developing economically, Russia was reeling from the collapse of the USSR, and the Europeans couldn't wait to demobilize fast enough.
I would say that in the post-Iraq War world we live in a uni-polycentric world. The US is still by far the dominant power of the world and has the might and power to challenge any nation or even a combination of nations on a certain level (it would be a challenge is China and Russia united for instance, but the US would wipe floor against most other combinations of nations) but it would take a large, and unusually cohesive coalition to work.
Ultimately there is a rise in several regional powers, as unipolarity cannot last forever. China, Russia, and on a lower level, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia are now regional powers that can disrupt and exert influence within the context of broader US global power. We're the only national economy not in turmoil. China is in economic turmoil coupled with demographic changes, environmental catastrophe, and ethnic strife, while Russia suffers from massive corruption, social decay, expanding military expenditures all within the context of a resource based economy, cut off from international financial services. India is roughly where China was back in the 1990's and is preoccupied with internal security issues, Pakistan, and instability in Burma and Bangladesh. Iran has its own internal issues, a looming leadership struggle, a stunted economy, and security issues in the form of ISIL, anti-Shia sentiment in the MENA region, and instability in Syria-Iraq. The European Union couldn't even figure out how to solve minor issues in the good years, and now beset by external Russian aggression, a dual pronged refugee crisis from North Africa and Syria, and endless economic troubles coupled with rising anti-immigrant and nationalist sentiment, they can't even tell their head from their ass and as a foot note, once again we see now power arising in the Latin American region while North America remains US property for all intents and purposes. Who knows what the future will hold but as things stand now, the US is still the worlds biggest, and most powerful player.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby TheCollectivist » Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:05 pm

The land of the rising smokestacks has as much "power" as a cheap inflated paper bill.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby EEL Mk2 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 8:10 pm

In my view, the Chinese economy is too over-leveraged - and much of the credit has been sourced from the shadow banking sector, which compounds the problem - to be able to avoid a very painful correction at some point in the future.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby CanadianEh » Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:39 pm

PaleRider wrote:
CanadianEh wrote:Well, if China's market continues to decline I think there will be a new world super-power that emerges, the middle eastern nations. Their governments, just like China's are very flexible and most are not Democracies, meaning laws and legislation gets passed rather quickly. I think what could really initiate this is if Saudi Arabia lets ISIS taje over all of Iraq and Syria and then emasses a coalition of middle eastern nations to go in, defeat ISIS in one blow and establish puppet states in the region.

Let's get one thing straight, the U.S.'s time with power is over and I find it rather humorous that many Americans are actually fighting tooth and nail to re-establish their top dog position. It's a waist of time, America should start worrying about it's own citizens for once rather than getting itself into the business of other countries.

I would heartily disagree with you. None of the proposed power competitors are even close to matching America's power and projection of power and while the rise of Saudi Arabia as the leader of a pan-Arab/Islamic coalition of states might seem logical and even feasible, it's something they've been trying for decades now with little to no success. The Middle East hasn't had a power organically rise from itself since the original Caliphate post-Muhammed burst onto the scene over 1400 years ago. The best competitors for Muslim power are Iran, Turkey, and Egypt. Egypt is beset with internal difficulties so they are out of the running. Turkey too is beset by internal rumblings, and flailing campaign against ISIL, Syria, and their Kurdish minority so they're out of the picture and Iran has long standing ethnic, and religious tension with the residents of the Arabian peninsula dating back centuries. Iran would be hard pressed to push its power and influence past Baghdad.
In addition, the five traditional centres of Islamic power (Cairo, Damascus, Baghdad, Istanbul, and Tehran) are all in some degree of turmoil, or internal preoccupation preventing the rise of a truly pan-national Islamic power. The best candidates right now are Iran and Turkey, with Iran severely limited by it's ethnic history (Persians and Arabs dont get along so well) while there is the all important Sunni-Shia divide.

Now moving onto to your assertion that the US is no longer the world superpower in an American dominated unipolar world, I would agree, IN PART. The period from 1991-2003 was really the American unipolar world. China was still developing economically, Russia was reeling from the collapse of the USSR, and the Europeans couldn't wait to demobilize fast enough.
I would say that in the post-Iraq War world we live in a uni-polycentric world. The US is still by far the dominant power of the world and has the might and power to challenge any nation or even a combination of nations on a certain level (it would be a challenge is China and Russia united for instance, but the US would wipe floor against most other combinations of nations) but it would take a large, and unusually cohesive coalition to work.
Ultimately there is a rise in several regional powers, as unipolarity cannot last forever. China, Russia, and on a lower level, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia are now regional powers that can disrupt and exert influence within the context of broader US global power. We're the only national economy not in turmoil. China is in economic turmoil coupled with demographic changes, environmental catastrophe, and ethnic strife, while Russia suffers from massive corruption, social decay, expanding military expenditures all within the context of a resource based economy, cut off from international financial services. India is roughly where China was back in the 1990's and is preoccupied with internal security issues, Pakistan, and instability in Burma and Bangladesh. Iran has its own internal issues, a looming leadership struggle, a stunted economy, and security issues in the form of ISIL, anti-Shia sentiment in the MENA region, and instability in Syria-Iraq. The European Union couldn't even figure out how to solve minor issues in the good years, and now beset by external Russian aggression, a dual pronged refugee crisis from North Africa and Syria, and endless economic troubles coupled with rising anti-immigrant and nationalist sentiment, they can't even tell their head from their ass and as a foot note, once again we see now power arising in the Latin American region while North America remains US property for all intents and purposes. Who knows what the future will hold but as things stand now, the US is still the worlds biggest, and most powerful player.

This is rather funny :lol:

The U.S. is declining in power and it begun in the 90s, one nation cannot remain in power forever, the system rotates.
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