Is China really rising?

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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby Amazeroth » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:49 pm

CanadianEh wrote:
PaleRider wrote:
CanadianEh wrote:Well, if China's market continues to decline I think there will be a new world super-power that emerges, the middle eastern nations. Their governments, just like China's are very flexible and most are not Democracies, meaning laws and legislation gets passed rather quickly. I think what could really initiate this is if Saudi Arabia lets ISIS taje over all of Iraq and Syria and then emasses a coalition of middle eastern nations to go in, defeat ISIS in one blow and establish puppet states in the region.

Let's get one thing straight, the U.S.'s time with power is over and I find it rather humorous that many Americans are actually fighting tooth and nail to re-establish their top dog position. It's a waist of time, America should start worrying about it's own citizens for once rather than getting itself into the business of other countries.

I would heartily disagree with you. None of the proposed power competitors are even close to matching America's power and projection of power and while the rise of Saudi Arabia as the leader of a pan-Arab/Islamic coalition of states might seem logical and even feasible, it's something they've been trying for decades now with little to no success. The Middle East hasn't had a power organically rise from itself since the original Caliphate post-Muhammed burst onto the scene over 1400 years ago. The best competitors for Muslim power are Iran, Turkey, and Egypt. Egypt is beset with internal difficulties so they are out of the running. Turkey too is beset by internal rumblings, and flailing campaign against ISIL, Syria, and their Kurdish minority so they're out of the picture and Iran has long standing ethnic, and religious tension with the residents of the Arabian peninsula dating back centuries. Iran would be hard pressed to push its power and influence past Baghdad.
In addition, the five traditional centres of Islamic power (Cairo, Damascus, Baghdad, Istanbul, and Tehran) are all in some degree of turmoil, or internal preoccupation preventing the rise of a truly pan-national Islamic power. The best candidates right now are Iran and Turkey, with Iran severely limited by it's ethnic history (Persians and Arabs dont get along so well) while there is the all important Sunni-Shia divide.

Now moving onto to your assertion that the US is no longer the world superpower in an American dominated unipolar world, I would agree, IN PART. The period from 1991-2003 was really the American unipolar world. China was still developing economically, Russia was reeling from the collapse of the USSR, and the Europeans couldn't wait to demobilize fast enough.
I would say that in the post-Iraq War world we live in a uni-polycentric world. The US is still by far the dominant power of the world and has the might and power to challenge any nation or even a combination of nations on a certain level (it would be a challenge is China and Russia united for instance, but the US would wipe floor against most other combinations of nations) but it would take a large, and unusually cohesive coalition to work.
Ultimately there is a rise in several regional powers, as unipolarity cannot last forever. China, Russia, and on a lower level, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia are now regional powers that can disrupt and exert influence within the context of broader US global power. We're the only national economy not in turmoil. China is in economic turmoil coupled with demographic changes, environmental catastrophe, and ethnic strife, while Russia suffers from massive corruption, social decay, expanding military expenditures all within the context of a resource based economy, cut off from international financial services. India is roughly where China was back in the 1990's and is preoccupied with internal security issues, Pakistan, and instability in Burma and Bangladesh. Iran has its own internal issues, a looming leadership struggle, a stunted economy, and security issues in the form of ISIL, anti-Shia sentiment in the MENA region, and instability in Syria-Iraq. The European Union couldn't even figure out how to solve minor issues in the good years, and now beset by external Russian aggression, a dual pronged refugee crisis from North Africa and Syria, and endless economic troubles coupled with rising anti-immigrant and nationalist sentiment, they can't even tell their head from their ass and as a foot note, once again we see now power arising in the Latin American region while North America remains US property for all intents and purposes. Who knows what the future will hold but as things stand now, the US is still the worlds biggest, and most powerful player.

This is rather funny :lol:

The U.S. is declining in power and it begun in the 90s, one nation cannot remain in power forever, the system rotates.



It's actually pretty astute, and correct, and the idea that the Middle East, of all places, could be the world's next superpower is incredibly far fetched - the only more unrealistic scenario would be that someone in Africa becomes it. Pale is completely right - the US isn't as dominant as it was before, but it's still the most powerful. And any decline there is more a product of internal American politics than a rise of other nations. In fact, the nations that would actually be likely to replace the US would either be Russia, since it's actually trying to - but it still would need 10 years of uninterrupted advancement, or a European nation (not the EU, unless something completely unexpected happens, but one of its current members), but none of them are actually trying to.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby CanadianEh » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:07 am

Amazeroth wrote:
CanadianEh wrote:
PaleRider wrote:I would heartily disagree with you. None of the proposed power competitors are even close to matching America's power and projection of power and while the rise of Saudi Arabia as the leader of a pan-Arab/Islamic coalition of states might seem logical and even feasible, it's something they've been trying for decades now with little to no success. The Middle East hasn't had a power organically rise from itself since the original Caliphate post-Muhammed burst onto the scene over 1400 years ago. The best competitors for Muslim power are Iran, Turkey, and Egypt. Egypt is beset with internal difficulties so they are out of the running. Turkey too is beset by internal rumblings, and flailing campaign against ISIL, Syria, and their Kurdish minority so they're out of the picture and Iran has long standing ethnic, and religious tension with the residents of the Arabian peninsula dating back centuries. Iran would be hard pressed to push its power and influence past Baghdad.
In addition, the five traditional centres of Islamic power (Cairo, Damascus, Baghdad, Istanbul, and Tehran) are all in some degree of turmoil, or internal preoccupation preventing the rise of a truly pan-national Islamic power. The best candidates right now are Iran and Turkey, with Iran severely limited by it's ethnic history (Persians and Arabs dont get along so well) while there is the all important Sunni-Shia divide.

Now moving onto to your assertion that the US is no longer the world superpower in an American dominated unipolar world, I would agree, IN PART. The period from 1991-2003 was really the American unipolar world. China was still developing economically, Russia was reeling from the collapse of the USSR, and the Europeans couldn't wait to demobilize fast enough.
I would say that in the post-Iraq War world we live in a uni-polycentric world. The US is still by far the dominant power of the world and has the might and power to challenge any nation or even a combination of nations on a certain level (it would be a challenge is China and Russia united for instance, but the US would wipe floor against most other combinations of nations) but it would take a large, and unusually cohesive coalition to work.
Ultimately there is a rise in several regional powers, as unipolarity cannot last forever. China, Russia, and on a lower level, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia are now regional powers that can disrupt and exert influence within the context of broader US global power. We're the only national economy not in turmoil. China is in economic turmoil coupled with demographic changes, environmental catastrophe, and ethnic strife, while Russia suffers from massive corruption, social decay, expanding military expenditures all within the context of a resource based economy, cut off from international financial services. India is roughly where China was back in the 1990's and is preoccupied with internal security issues, Pakistan, and instability in Burma and Bangladesh. Iran has its own internal issues, a looming leadership struggle, a stunted economy, and security issues in the form of ISIL, anti-Shia sentiment in the MENA region, and instability in Syria-Iraq. The European Union couldn't even figure out how to solve minor issues in the good years, and now beset by external Russian aggression, a dual pronged refugee crisis from North Africa and Syria, and endless economic troubles coupled with rising anti-immigrant and nationalist sentiment, they can't even tell their head from their ass and as a foot note, once again we see now power arising in the Latin American region while North America remains US property for all intents and purposes. Who knows what the future will hold but as things stand now, the US is still the worlds biggest, and most powerful player.

This is rather funny :lol:

The U.S. is declining in power and it begun in the 90s, one nation cannot remain in power forever, the system rotates.



It's actually pretty astute, and correct, and the idea that the Middle East, of all places, could be the world's next superpower is incredibly far fetched - the only more unrealistic scenario would be that someone in Africa becomes it. Pale is completely right - the US isn't as dominant as it was before, but it's still the most powerful. And any decline there is more a product of internal American politics than a rise of other nations. In fact, the nations that would actually be likely to replace the US would either be Russia, since it's actually trying to - but it still would need 10 years of uninterrupted advancement, or a European nation (not the EU, unless something completely unexpected happens, but one of its current members), but none of them are actually trying to.

Having a Middle Eastern power for about 20-30 years isn't that fast-fetched, though it does get dismissed by everyone in the Western world because of what the media shoves down everyone's throats.
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby EEL Mk2 » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:19 am

CanadianEh wrote:Having a Middle Eastern power for about 20-30 years isn't that fast-fetched,
I think that it is fairly far-fetched. Obviously it's impossible to rule out the possibility entirely, but I cannot identify a single country in that region with a credible prospect of achieving great power status on par with countries like the United States. Can you?
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Re: Is China really rising?

Postby PaleRider » Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:25 am

EEL Mk2 wrote:
CanadianEh wrote:Having a Middle Eastern power for about 20-30 years isn't that fast-fetched,
I think that it is fairly far-fetched. Obviously it's impossible to rule out the possibility entirely, but I cannot identify a single country in that region with a credible prospect of achieving great power status on par with countries like the United States. Can you?

It would require a massive shake up of both internal political organizations, the rise of a credible pan-Arab movement, with an astute leadership. The board is set to where a charismatic leader, could, with the right organization, message and luck take advantage of the chaos, the hopelessness, war, and foreign intervention and rally the people to unite. The problem is, there hasn't been a leader like that since a little known trader from Mecca burst onto the scene roughly 1400 years ago.
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