Castro is Dead. What now?

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Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby Maxington » Sat Nov 26, 2016 2:38 pm

Well with Castro gone, what can we expect?
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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby jamescfm » Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:25 pm

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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby Aquinas » Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:55 pm

I hope Cuba will become more normalised. From what I understand, over recent years things have moved somewhat in that direction already.
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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby Siggon Kristov » Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:13 pm

I don't know. I don't think we should reduce the Cuban Revolution and all that it did - whether good or bad - to just his doing. He was certainly the face of the Revolution, but I'm cautious of the narrative that we should reduce it to him, or "the Castros" - 1 or 2 men can't unanimously control an entire country. All that was done surely could not have been done without support - or at least contentment - from a significant portion of the population.

jamescfm wrote:Castro still, just a different one...

Well Raul Castro had already succeeded Fidel in all official posts in 2008, IIRC. In any case, if this is about formal power within Cuba... This nonsense that Cuba is some hereditary monarchy is lazy analysis, and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of Cuban politics. Raul was one of the co-leaders of the Cuban Revolution, and he was a Communist before Fidel. He never simply got the position because he's "Castro's brother" - by this logic, Ramon Castro would have had a chance to take power in 2006 or 2008. I would call Cuba a one-party dictatorship, but not a family-based dictatorship.

I doubt a Castro will succeed Ramon when he steps down in 2018. If it's any of the senior officials, it would probably be Esteban Lazo Hernandez. If it's someone else, it would be a younger person who has served in some high-ranking office within the party or the government. It could be Miguel Díaz-Canel, who is currently the First Vice President, and he's from a different generation. It could be anyone among several former Vice Presidents, considering that there are 6 elected each term, or anyone else who has served in the Council of State before.

Aquinas wrote:I hope Cuba will become more normalised.

I'd love to know what you mean by "more normalised" - you mean having normal relations with other countries like the US (even though it has had pretty normal relations with many countries), or do you mean abiding by neoliberal standards?
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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby jamescfm » Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:19 pm

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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby Siggon Kristov » Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:50 pm

jamescfm wrote:
Siggon Kristov wrote:
jamescfm wrote:Castro still, just a different one...

Well Raul Castro had already succeeded Fidel in all official posts in 2008, IIRC.

That's what I was getting at really. The question asked was rather vague and it suggested that Castro was still a political leader when in reality Raul has been President since 2008 and First Secretary of the Communist Party since 2011.

But that would have nothing to do with recent developments to answer a question of "what now?"
That would just have to do with Fidel falling ill about 10 years ago.

What is expected to change, now that Fidel is dead?
Despite not having formal political power, he did have far-reaching influence in the region and the world. We don't have to restrict this to "Oh, Raul succeeds Fidel, and that's it." Meeting Fidel was some sort of pilgrimage for many leaders, including within the region. He also wrote articles on global affairs, in quite a fiery tone.
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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby jamescfm » Sat Nov 26, 2016 7:01 pm

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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby Hrafn » Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:25 am

Fidel Castro's death will probably have no major effect on anything. As others have said, he hasn't been leading the country for years anyway. Cuba will remain a one-party state and continue moving towards a more market-based economic system, perhaps becoming similar to China and Vietnam.
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Re: Castro is Dead. What now?

Postby Doc » Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:08 am

jamescfm wrote:Oddly enough, I ordered Guerrilla Warfare yesterday evening. Has anybody read it?


It worked for Guevara... and ironically enough, against him as well. It is an often reported anecdote that in Bolivia, the CIA used Guevara's manual to neutralize him.

I have read it a number of times. I have thought about how it could be employed in a continental setting. I don't think it is applicable except on Islands. One of the best things that Castro's group had going for it in the early days was complete isolation in the Sierra Maestra. We have militarized drones now...
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