French Presidential Election, 2017

[Hrafn]

If the AfD also wins in Germany, that would make 2017 the best year ever.

Let me tell you as a German, this isn't going to happen. The AfD will almost certainly enter the Bundestag and might do with >10%, but it is compeltely isolated and will not get close to power whatsoever. Merkel's popularity is already rising again and I'm pretty certain she will receive another term - not that I'm happy about it (I actually despise most of her current policies), but it seems, to use a term she has coined, pretty much alternativlos.

I think I got the AfD mixed up with the FPÖ in Austria (I'm pretty much convinced that Norbert Hofer will win the presidential election). Anyway, even if the AfD doesn't win, them entering the Bundestag is still great.

Merkel's popularity is already rising again and I'm pretty certain she will receive another term

Hm... well, then perhaps the Germans deserve to be displaced.

Edit: Norbert, not Herbert. It must be time for me to go to bed.

[Alain Delors]

I think I got the AfD mixed up with the FPÖ in Austria (I'm pretty much convinced that Norbert Hofer will win the presidential election). Anyway, even if the AfD doesn't win, them entering the Bundestag is still great.

Merkel's popularity is already rising again and I'm pretty certain she will receive another term

Hm... well, then perhaps the Germans deserve to be displaced.

The FPÖ has a realistic shot, because the Austrians are less hysterical about right-wing populist parties. We Germans, not so much. And I have no idea why Germans keep clinging to Merkel - even the CSU has given in and basically endorsed her for re-election. *sigh*

[Kubrick]

Fillon for me too. Though I quite miss Sarkozy. What has happened to all the colourful figures of European politics? Sarkozy, Berlusconi..

Marine Le Pen. She and Front National are France's only hope. Her winning would not only be good for France, but for all of Europe. If the AfD also wins in Germany, that would make 2017 the best year ever. And then there's the Dutch election on top of that.
I'm in a winning mood.

Wilders will never win in the Netherlands. He's blown it plus his party is basically social traditionalism + leftist stuff for the lower class voters he needs. Here's to Rutte III.

[Alain Delors]

The second round seems to have delivered a 2/3-majority for Fillon. Remains to be seen whether he'll face Le Pen, Macron or the respective PS candidate in the presidential runoff.

[Aquinas]

Whoever wins the next Presidential election, they're going to have a tough ride ahead. Personally I don't think Hollande has been that bad and I'd say he deserves another go, but that's me...he doesn't seem generally popular at the moment, though.

If Le Pen wins...OMG. That could be the beginning of the end for the European Union, and dare I say it, possibly for European civilisation as we know it as well...

[Alain Delors]

Whoever wins the next Presidential election, they're going to have a tough ride ahead. Personally I don't think Hollande has been that bad and I'd say he deserves another go, but that's me...he doesn't seem generally popular at the moment, though.

If Le Pen wins...OMG. That could be the beginning of the end for the European Union, and dare I say it, possibly for European civilisation as we know it as well...

Hollande's approval rating is approaching the level of unemployment. Regardless of what you think of him (and predictably that means very little in my case), it is quite unlikely that he would be able to attract the level of support to reach the runoff. He might try to appeal to statist, pro-Juppé Gaullists turned off by Fillon's neoliberalism, but these would probably rather opt for Bayrou since that would be less of a stretch than crossing over to the left. Or he could tack to the left again and try to siphon votes from Mélenchon, but the hard-left considers him an "ultra-libérale" ever since he made cautious attempts for economic reform. And I see no way for him to reach FN voters in a meaningful number.

I don't care much for the EU as a political construct, but Le Pen is a dangerous economic berserk. Unlike other right-wing populist parties such as UKIP or the AfD, her fiscal and industrial policy is unapologetically interventionist in almost every respect. She might try to tear up the Single Market and impose a protectionist trade regime, which is the last thing France needs. Her social policies are outlandish too, if the French are worried about national security and the potential downsides of multiculturalism they can look to Fillon for a sane right-wing alternative instead of voting for that crazy woman.

[Alain Delors]

Two new polls give Fillon the victory in both the first and second round of the presidential election. In fact he's beating Le Pen easily by 70-30%, which is fairly impressive. And Hollande has in the meantime sunk to single digits.

[MichaelReilly]

3 people on here have expressed explicit approval for a fascist.

These are genuinely terrifying times.

[jamescfm]

.

[Zanz]

3 people on here have expressed explicit approval for a fascist.

These are genuinely terrifying times.

Our demographic is largely teen and early 20 something males, and anonymous. Not really representative at all.