Adithya wrote:Will the Labour Parties recently released manifesto help boost the parties popularity?
I think it might help improve their position in the opinion polls by 1 or 2%
The opinion poll data so far suggests you are pretty much spot on. To quote from
Metro:
According to a Britain Elects poll at the start of the week, the Conservatives had a 17 point lead, with 46.8% of the vote, while Labour trailed in second with 29.8%.
But following the manifesto, Labour have managed to close the gap by three points, putting them on 33% compared to the Tories at 47%, according to a Panelbase poll released yesterday.
A PA poll of polls also put the party ahead but at 31%.
The change appears to suggest the Labour vote is continuing to trend upwards as election day looms.
But Theresa May still seems to be on course to become elected prime minister when the country votes on June 8.
However, I would say that in itself, the small opinion poll boost is not particularly interesting or surprising. If you looked at previous British General Election campaigns, I think you would usually see each party gaining a small boost when it released its manifesto, as a result of the ensuing media coverage.
jamescfm wrote:Polling shows that the major parts of the manifesto (e.g. free school meals, retaining triple lock and nationalising the railways) are supported by the majority of the population.
This is true. Overall, public opinion has never been that keen on, for example, privatisation of the railways, energy companies and water companies, so Labour's policies on those issues are in tune with public opinion.
QV73 wrote:It's not a massively popular manifesto outside of with Corbyn's clique.
Well, at least on the surface, the opinion poll data would seem to disagree with you - at least on quite a few issues, anyway. However, I wonder whether "under the surface", as it were, you might be right. What I mean is, for example, I suspect a lot of the people who told opinion pollsters they want to nationalise rail, energy & water actually believe (reluctantly) that those proposals would be too impractical/expensive. Similarly, I suspect a lot of voters who tell pollsters they want higher taxes and higher spending actually believe (reluctantly) that that might not be the best idea after all. In other words, what I'm getting at is that people don't always tell the truth to pollsters. There is all sorts of psychology involved.
QV73 wrote:Corbyn's manifesto was 'popular' in the sense it has popular policies in it, but not popular enough to change people's images of him. He's messed up badly in some areas - mainly in who he's chosen as his front bench - that he simply has more to do before he can win an election
I personally agree with your reservations about Corbyn and his front bench, but I've got to ask...how much is Corbyn's unpopularity with the public due to Corbyn himself, and how much of it is due to the fact a large part of the Labour Party (including most of his parliamentary colleagues) are not very supportive of him? The thing is, the public like "strong leaders" and "united parties". Maybe if Labour was more united around Corbyn, he'd have a better chance with the electorate?
jamescfm wrote:Also, there was no manifesto in 1982, it was 1983.
Talking of Labour's 1983 manifesto, I've actually seen a real copy of it, at my former university's library. It's MASSIVE! Most manifestos are relatively slim, but Labour's 1983 manifesto is big...Kauffman called it "the longest suicide note in history"...